The Best One can do Now !

  The best one can do now is hold onto sections of stocks one knows are going to be needed in future to supply the needs of the world popula...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

SHARES that should succeed over the next couple of years.

 COMMENT FOR AUGUST 2014  
 Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital  and  income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER  NEW ITEMS  IN THE SIDE-BAR.

NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from  around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the  metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
  
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO  TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK  MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
   Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them  long term.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Platinum Group Metals now and in the future

    The longest strike in South African history, namely five months has come to an end. There were no winners as the workers will have to work up to five years to make up lost  pay under the no work no pay principle and the mines were brought to their knees as there was no spike in the platinum and other related metal prices.
The newest entry is always found at the bottom of the index above. The rest of this article is beneath Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 22/7/2014
It seems as if there is going to be an over supply of COAL in the not too distant future world wide. At the moment ,there is a shortage of coal at our electricity company ,namely ESCOM  perhaps not the time to rush into buying coal mining shares!


 ALERT 10/7/2014
Gold has made a comeback in the last couple of days, much against a the consensus that it will continue to wane. Nervousness about the future of stock markets as they have  out performed the actual recovery as well as slowing growth in Europe's main driver Germany as well as major trouble in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and over production in China is unsettling the markets, also the firing of indiscriminate rockets into Israel from Gaza that can only be stopped by a ground invasion.
NOTE 5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE NOW IN PLACE July 28
Note 4.Spring share and derivative update is now in place 21/7/2014  see also preliminary SUMMER LIST 23/7
NOTE 3 My specialist watch list parts A,B,C    have been updated see above 14/7/2014
NOTE 2 Small caps summer list has been updated see above 25/7/2014
Note 1.See the relaunched  Resources News on page 3 for my reasons for choosing AMPLATS to recover best from the platinum strike above on 3/7/2014

  Despite the return to work and hefty increases for entry level miners (20% plus),the mines will not be able to carry as usual on if there is not a significant increase in metal prices soon ,an unlikely event ( Read the recent posts on the strikes as well to fully understand why)
   A fact not often written about is that hungry striking miners on some mines opened old ventilation shafts and old entrances to tunnels and stripped the mines of miles of electrical copper cables and iron pipes to sell illegally on the black market to gain money to pay for food to survive the strikes as well. All will have to be replaced now at high prices before mining can safely commence again. Contractors are now being payed off which cause a ripple effect on the economy and as miners retire etc they are not being replaced.
A great deal has been written about mechanizing the mines. This is not always feasible for many of the mines as there narrow ore bodies very deep down. The most likely result is that most of the older mines will close down permanently.
    Amplats and the other miners will also probably sell off the deeper mines and go for the opencast option ,as that is the only way they will be able to mechanise.
    There is unlikely to be a strike on this scale in the future, which has almost forced our country back into a recession again. Since we pride ourselves on being democratic, the minister of mines is now mulling over legislation that will make it illegal to strike unless a strike ballot is held and sixty percent of the workers approve it. There after further supervised strike ballots must be held say every four weeks. Security will also be beefed up during such an action so as to allow non striking unions members to work with out the danger of being killed. This present strike was called by the union boss and then he used strong arm tactics to enforce it.
SEE ALSO MY MOST POPULAR POST OF 1 MARCH  2012
MENTIONED IN THE SIDE BAR NAMELY The stripping of South African Resource Assets part 1.As this foretold of the events of the present period!

Sunday, June 1, 2014

IN A REFLECTIVE MOOD

 Time to step back from the market and take stock. There has been a good run over the last couple of months. Most markets are at their highest points, or just below.

The latest entry on the index above is always at the bottom
 of the list. Rest of the post above can be found below ALERTS AND NOTES
5.The winter list has been updated above June 23/6/2014
4.See the SPRING UPDATE ABOVE f June 17
3.Resources Post has been updated above 12,14,25,30/6/2014.SEE OUR NEW PAGE 2 OUR CHOICES 
2.MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS A.B AND C HAVE UPDATED SEE ABOVE 9/6/2014
1.TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS HAS BEEN UPDATED 4/6/2014

11/6/2014 ALERT       At long last after five months of the platinum strike, the prices of the platinum group metals are beginning to start to rise. The place to be might be to buy the Exchange Traded Funds as the mines are still proving to be unstable.
The mines are considering undisclosed , at this stage steps to return some of their holdings to production. The government s also proposing to build houses at their expense relieving the mines of this task. It must be added that the mines already pay quite generous amounts to all the miners to obtain better accommodation. These steps have not appeased the hard core union which is also tied to an extreme left political party. Ordinary starving miners are asking for protection from the extremists to return to work.

 NOW some traders would say a bubble is forming in certain sectors. This is really not true as the majority of shares are increasing on good management which in turn leads to increased profits. Of course shares also run ahead on expectations and this is where some dangers lie.
 Shares are likely to pull back  around 8% or slightly more in the months ahead ,then continue their progress, although they are fully priced now the world is generally still coming out of the recession. We in South Africa have  suffered a general set-back with the long miners strike, how ever there is now hope, since the ANC had a resounding victory in the election that they will act firmly, some thing they did not do in the past fearing a backlash in the voting. There is unfortunately a great deal of savagery taking place with workers returning to worked being chopped up literally into pieces. On a SMS campaign 60% have voted for return to work.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

FUTURE POWER SOURCES

There are many different types of power sources that are environmentally friendly being developed. There are  almost as many already working but requiring capital as they are hellishly expensive or not quite developed for the purpose they were envisioned for.


See rest of article below Alerts and Notes 
ALERT 17/5
We have made no entries into the resource blog for the last two months for the reason we   honestly believe there is no value in this section at the moment .Even when the strike ends the platinum sector will not be in recovery mode as prices of the PGMs is far too low. Demand worldwide now is slowing for most mineral producers as well


NOTE 5 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST PART A IS UPDATED21/5/2016

NOTE 4 Please note that the latest updates are always placed at the bottom of the index above

Note no 3 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PARTS  A,B and C WHICH SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH OTHER HAVE NOW BEEN UPDATED 10/5/2014

NOTE no 2 Go to the NEW WINTER SMALL CAP LIST
above 3,5 May

Note no 1 Do click on the labels in the side-bar and at the bottom of each post to combine like minded posts for further research

One of the most promising is the fuel cell technology, which is already used in outer space satellites, stationary engines , is in the nearing finished stage in automobiles and heavy transport .
A great deal of money was spent on fuel-cells by the PLATINUM companies as well as leading governments world wide, Amplats has taken the lead in South Africa in conjunction with Ballard to produce a home generators on a large scale. This non-grid technology will be able to supply quality electricity to primary to 3,4 million people. A world first.
Amplats is also developing fuel cells to power the electricity needs of the mines as Escom struggles to provide enough electricity from conventional means.
 The most exciting development is platinum proton exchange membranes. Concrete steps to fund the roll-out of hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure in advanced countries is underway.

 

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

RESOURCES IN CHANGING TIMES

0ver the last couple of decades resources have moved in  different directions which we could hardly comprehend  in the past.
See Alerts and rest of post below notes
NOTE 8 The final Autumn update above 29/4/2014
NOTE 7 The preliminary spring list has been published 24/4/2014
NOTE 6 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PART A and B have been updated See above 22/4/2014
NOTE 5 SMALL CAPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 16/4/2014
NOTE The winter list has been updated  14/3/2014
NOTE 4 Real Estate facts and figure are updated above 7/4/2014
NOTE 3 Small caps blog has been updated 3/4/2014
NOTE 2 The newest update appears at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 1 It would be a good idea to BOOKMARK this page
ALERT 21/4
Amplats and Implats have increased their offer of wages to  10% per annum.At the present offer no mine can really afford it as the price they receive for platinum is below the present working cost. How ever most surface supplies have been used up and the mines are bargaining on an increase of prices going forward.
Meanwhile the president of the maverick union AMCU is as cute as a cartload of monkeys as the saying goes as he now asks the government for funds to rescue the union members on their three month strike with out pay.At the same time it must be remembered there thousands of workers willing to take their jobs with out work,so far the mines have resisted the call to use Scab labour.

ALERT 5/4.
MASILELA who is the head of the PIC(Public Investment Corporation) ,has shown a complete lack of economic sense, suggesting  the platinum miners should form a cartel with Russia as these two countries produce 80%  of the platinum group metals in the world, to determine the prices. One has only to read this post and others that I have written over the past months to see such an idea would would worsen the mines positions further. Obviously he is frustrated by the ten week strike that continues as an election is coming up in May.

As an example platinum which was the most desired metal  and needed in all kinds of industrial as well  as jewellery now is not that much in demand any more as now platinum is recovered from scrap in a big way has seen its price almost halve over that period.

During the same period the United States of America has freed its self from relying on imported fuels with its fracking  program as well as its tar sands and deep wells in the Gulf of Mexico.
NEW MINING METHODS are now urgently being sought here in South Africa as unfortunately politics have been wound in with labour relations to paralyse the mines .We in this country have up to eight times more labourers to run similar mines than would be needed in any other country of the world. The government resisted efforts of the mines to reduce staff. Now how ever their veiw is changing as the drop in taxes from the mines is  forcing the fiscus to take A DIFFERENT VEIW.   

Saturday, March 1, 2014

WORLD WIDE RESOURCE OVER PRODUCTION

Resource production jumped into top gear when the governments world-wide artificially stimulated a recovery. Well enough a recovery is underway but at a sedate pace.

See rest of article under NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE  9 See updates for MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS 2012 to2014 above on 23/3

NOTE  8 AUTUMN TOP 40 LIST HAS BEEN UPDATED 17/3/2014 see above.

NOTE 7 See Transfer to Small Cap shares above 12/3.2014
NOTE 6 GOOGLE    PAWSITIVELY ADORABLE PETS
NOTE 5 SEE WINTER TOP 40 LIST UPDATE 10/3/2014

NOTE 4  FOR SMALL MEDIUM CAP SHARES LATEST UPDATES SEE on 5/2/2014
http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NOTE 3.REMEMBER THE LATEST UPDATES OF PAGES IS ALWAYS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX ABOVE.

NOTE 2.USE THE LABELS IN THE SIDE BAR TO CLUSTER SUBJECTS YOU ARE INTERESTED IN

NOTE 1. IT,S A GOOD IDEA TO BOOKMARK THIS SITE IN YOUR FAVOURITES BAR ABOVE

ALERT 14/3  The ANC ruling party is  panicing  and introducing all kinds of socialist legislation to appease the masses. Pity as this will frighten away investors. No doubt there will be challenges by mines and farmers in the constitutional court after the elections, which will then reverse most of this legislation. The high workless figure  makes the ruling parties job more difficult.

This has led to bottlenecks and severe over supply as the recovery amongst the real populace have not  felt the recovery yet and are just for the most part surviving with no extra cash to create actual demand.

China has a tremendous over supply of iron ore at the moment with supplies at 870 metric tonnes and demand running at 700 tonnes per annum, and the situation is getting worse with users offering lower prices . Spot prices are declining by the week with last week the price at $120 dollars, now according to Reuters less than $110 are being offered.
Copper is in the same boat with demand weak.

In South Africa the platinum strike came at an opportune time, which can be seen as although it has been  going on for just over a month, the price has not shot up markedly. Now surface surplus supplies are coming to an end the price might move up at a faster pace. On the other hand costs of production have also increased so the mines will struggle to return to profitability soon.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Emerging Market Sell off.

Lets face it ALL markets ,  have run ahead of the slow recoveries world wide

 (See ARTCLE,ALERTS  below  NOTES.)
NOTE 10 SEE MY SPECIALIST  UPDATE FOR 2014
NOTE 9 SEE TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS  LIST 26/2/20
NOTE 8 SEE FEB UPDATE AUTUMN LIST
NOTE 7 SEE TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NAOMI'S UPDATE
NOTE 6. ADDITIONAL UPDATE MY SPECIALIST SHARES 15/2/2014
NOTE  5  TRANFER TO SMALL CAPS PAGE 1 UPDATED 14/2/2014
NOTE  4 REAL ESTATE UPDATE 12/2/2014
NOTE 3  SEE MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST UPDATE ABOVE 10/2/2014
NOTE 2 TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NEWS  6/FEB ABOVE TO SEE NAOMI'S NEW SMALL/MID CAP COMMENT
NOTE 1 The latest update is always  put at the bottom of the index above.
ALERT `14/2/2014
The State president mentioning the crippling  platinum mine strike in his national address, now gives the parties 
a chance at resolving their differences in a face saving way for the new labor union which promised their members that there would be no negotiation and all their demands would be met!


In the turbulent markets we have at the moment ,investors are seeking safe havens. Gold that has been out of fashion is beginning to shine again and although it fell initially as the emerging markets came off sharply. The question now is ,should take a chance and buy gold mines or rather the metal exchange traded funds. More discerning traders are looking to mines that can produce greater profits than just holding the metal.
Well South Africa has settled her gold strikes and there is unlikely to be another major strike for the next two years when this agreement ends.
A GOLD MINE overlooked by overseas buyers is SIBANYE (SGL).THIS RICHEST GOLD PRODUCER IN THE WORLD HAS COME OUT WITH A WONDERFUL UPDATE.ALL OTHER GOLD PRODUCERS WOULD GIVE THEIR "EYE-TEETH" FOR THEIR ASSETS.A CASH COW INDEED!