The Best One can do Now !

  The best one can do now is hold onto sections of stocks one knows are going to be needed in future to supply the needs of the world popula...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

BACK TO THE FUTURE ?

   The world has had a great reprieve, with literally the collapse of the oil price  per barrel of crude, near the end of 2014.  The main question now is ,is this a temporary state or will the oil price rebound?
  I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
  Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US   Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off  completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
   Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear  power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells,  wind  and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
  All this is  giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
  I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015    http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

Monday, December 1, 2014

A FAIRLY GOOD YEAR

To date the our Alsi and Topi index together with world indexes have been at all time highs at least five times this year. Sure the share prices have run ahead of the actual recovery on the ground, but good quality shares will generally grow in to those prices in the coming years. Resource prices have taken a hammering during the past three years generally as the whole scene changes due to demand after the recession ended. There has been a general decline in demand as various countries try to stimulate their economies to offset deflation, how ever the oil price decline has been a Godsend to help stimulate the world economies. It must be noted that this event has also had some destabilizing effect upon prices of resources as traders try to discern how this will effect the various products. I shall report upon the effect on the various minerals next year.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our  personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
 Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Currency Surprises

   Well  Quantitative Easing (QE) has finally ended in the United States and there was a quick nervous retreat in the market ,how ever the turn around in the States continues with business improving visibly. Which ever way we look at it there was not enough money as before floating around in the world to kick-start the rest of the world economies.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2.  See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014 
   The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France  and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
    The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China  there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.       
   This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
 Japan's population have also recently chosen  a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create  money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing  !". This has had an  electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points  which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
   The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
   Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Too soon for Recessionary Talk !

Of late there has been a great deal of nervousness around the market, with the last recession remembered only too well, as it was only last year that the recovery began in earnest.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of   the Continents.
Shares  had reached  all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative  easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5%  will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the  market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.








Monday, September 1, 2014

THE WORLD IS ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE

The Ukranian crises could well get out of control. Time is running out .It is every ones interest to find a political solution.  It has already had a economic effect on Russia its satellites and the
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere  will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014  SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014  SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist  above as well as parts  A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above

5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult  and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas  too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.

Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of  the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like  to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

SHARES that should succeed over the next couple of years.

 COMMENT FOR AUGUST 2014  
 Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital  and  income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER  NEW ITEMS  IN THE SIDE-BAR.

NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from  around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the  metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
  
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO  TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK  MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
   Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them  long term.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Platinum Group Metals now and in the future

    The longest strike in South African history, namely five months has come to an end. There were no winners as the workers will have to work up to five years to make up lost  pay under the no work no pay principle and the mines were brought to their knees as there was no spike in the platinum and other related metal prices.
The newest entry is always found at the bottom of the index above. The rest of this article is beneath Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 22/7/2014
It seems as if there is going to be an over supply of COAL in the not too distant future world wide. At the moment ,there is a shortage of coal at our electricity company ,namely ESCOM  perhaps not the time to rush into buying coal mining shares!


 ALERT 10/7/2014
Gold has made a comeback in the last couple of days, much against a the consensus that it will continue to wane. Nervousness about the future of stock markets as they have  out performed the actual recovery as well as slowing growth in Europe's main driver Germany as well as major trouble in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and over production in China is unsettling the markets, also the firing of indiscriminate rockets into Israel from Gaza that can only be stopped by a ground invasion.
NOTE 5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE NOW IN PLACE July 28
Note 4.Spring share and derivative update is now in place 21/7/2014  see also preliminary SUMMER LIST 23/7
NOTE 3 My specialist watch list parts A,B,C    have been updated see above 14/7/2014
NOTE 2 Small caps summer list has been updated see above 25/7/2014
Note 1.See the relaunched  Resources News on page 3 for my reasons for choosing AMPLATS to recover best from the platinum strike above on 3/7/2014

  Despite the return to work and hefty increases for entry level miners (20% plus),the mines will not be able to carry as usual on if there is not a significant increase in metal prices soon ,an unlikely event ( Read the recent posts on the strikes as well to fully understand why)
   A fact not often written about is that hungry striking miners on some mines opened old ventilation shafts and old entrances to tunnels and stripped the mines of miles of electrical copper cables and iron pipes to sell illegally on the black market to gain money to pay for food to survive the strikes as well. All will have to be replaced now at high prices before mining can safely commence again. Contractors are now being payed off which cause a ripple effect on the economy and as miners retire etc they are not being replaced.
A great deal has been written about mechanizing the mines. This is not always feasible for many of the mines as there narrow ore bodies very deep down. The most likely result is that most of the older mines will close down permanently.
    Amplats and the other miners will also probably sell off the deeper mines and go for the opencast option ,as that is the only way they will be able to mechanise.
    There is unlikely to be a strike on this scale in the future, which has almost forced our country back into a recession again. Since we pride ourselves on being democratic, the minister of mines is now mulling over legislation that will make it illegal to strike unless a strike ballot is held and sixty percent of the workers approve it. There after further supervised strike ballots must be held say every four weeks. Security will also be beefed up during such an action so as to allow non striking unions members to work with out the danger of being killed. This present strike was called by the union boss and then he used strong arm tactics to enforce it.
SEE ALSO MY MOST POPULAR POST OF 1 MARCH  2012
MENTIONED IN THE SIDE BAR NAMELY The stripping of South African Resource Assets part 1.As this foretold of the events of the present period!