This state of affairs has been well documented and commented upon. I therefore wish only then to point out some of the effects upon our Southern African region.
Rest of this post below notes
1.Latest update at bottom of index above.
2,Use the left hand side bar to cluster articles on various subjects.
3 Read Our Mining and Mineral News for latest on those subjects see above for address. See the NEW page in the side-bar on Mining houses and Holding companies.
At this stage we have to believe that the bond buying programme ,now called their "quantitative easing programme " despite all its inefficientcies in the Euro zone will help reverse the deflation which is now gripping this region. After all the American QE has definitely left the economy there in a better mode.
As far as we go on our REITS on the JSE that concentrate on Europe are flying as they are now buying European property portfolios in their depressed markets and will hopefully provide good growth as they restore their confidence.
On the negative side is our export of all kinds minerals . There is really not a market now for our base and industrial metals with falling prices as well as our precious metals, and only rare metals prices are holding up. As mines become unprofitable they forced to either close or cut back drastically on staff ,leading to social unrest which might come back to bite the Western world sooner than they think. Another unfavourable outcome is that Eastern Socialist countries are moving into Africa mining whole sale and buying up these assets at fire sale prices!
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Thursday, January 1, 2015
BACK TO THE FUTURE ?
The world has had a great reprieve, with literally the collapse of the oil price per barrel of crude, near the end of 2014. The main question now is ,is this a temporary state or will the oil price rebound?
I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells, wind and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
All this is giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015 http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com
I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells, wind and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
All this is giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015 http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com
Monday, December 1, 2014
A FAIRLY GOOD YEAR
To date the our Alsi and Topi index together with world indexes have been at all time highs at least five times this year. Sure the share prices have run ahead of the actual recovery on the ground, but good quality shares will generally grow in to those prices in the coming years. Resource prices have taken a hammering during the past three years generally as the whole scene changes due to demand after the recession ended. There has been a general decline in demand as various countries try to stimulate their economies to offset deflation, how ever the oil price decline has been a Godsend to help stimulate the world economies. It must be noted that this event has also had some destabilizing effect upon prices of resources as traders try to discern how this will effect the various products. I shall report upon the effect on the various minerals next year.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Currency Surprises
Well Quantitative Easing (QE) has finally ended in the United States and there was a quick nervous retreat in the market ,how ever the turn around in the States continues with business improving visibly. Which ever way we look at it there was not enough money as before floating around in the world to kick-start the rest of the world economies.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2. See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014
The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.
This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
Japan's population have also recently chosen a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing !". This has had an electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2. See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014
The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.
This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
Japan's population have also recently chosen a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing !". This has had an electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Too soon for Recessionary Talk !
Of late there has been a great deal of nervousness around the market, with the last recession remembered only too well, as it was only last year that the recovery began in earnest.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of the Continents.
Shares had reached all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5% will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of the Continents.
Shares had reached all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5% will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.
Monday, September 1, 2014
THE WORLD IS ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE
The Ukranian crises could well get out of control. Time is running out .It is every ones interest to find a political solution. It has already had a economic effect on Russia its satellites and the
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014 SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014 SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist above as well as parts A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above
5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.
Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014 SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014 SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist above as well as parts A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above
5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.
Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
SHARES that should succeed over the next couple of years.
COMMENT FOR AUGUST 2014
Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital and income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS
NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER NEW ITEMS IN THE SIDE-BAR.
NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them long term.
Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital and income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS
NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER NEW ITEMS IN THE SIDE-BAR.
NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them long term.
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