The new year awakens !

Obviously we are going to try to avoid last years mistakes and do the right things to be very successful ,but just remember;
"The greatest mistake you can make in life ,is to be continually afraid that you are going to make one"  ELBERT HUBBARD.

ALERT 24 JAN TWO REASONABLY PRICED RAND HEDGES NOW WITH STRONG FLOWS OF INCOME. REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL(RIN),TRENCOR(TRE)

ALERT 10 JAN
RESOURCE SHARES ARE ON THE MOVE.THE PLATINUM PRICE IS QUITE RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE GOLD PRICE.CHINA IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO WORLD RECOVERY AND AMERICA IS SLOWLY RECOVERING.THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND OTHER MINERALS FUELED BY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS RAMPING UP. IN DEMAND NOW IS PLATINUM AND COAL

1.The latest updates are mentioned at the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE

See Barry's latest comment on commercial real estate on part A real estate page on
the following blogspot
             and     also see Naomi's update of small resource shares  AND her first comment on technical  analysis Jan16

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

DECEMBER The "FISCAL CLIFF"

FINAL ALERT 28/12/2012
The canny American Politicians realise that the Americans will have to fork out more money in taxes if America is to keep its super power status and other steps have to be taken to balance the budget, as well as keeping positive programs in their society.Never a popular move for any demoncratically elected government to take.Certain political suicide for any party associated with increases.So they are likely to let some of the fiscal cliff  go through.Then they can propose softening the most contentious parts and that will be well received by all.They might just increase the debt ceiling now.
The wildcat strikes have taken their toll on especially Gold and Platinum mines .With out further structurng the majority are in or will run into a monetary deficit soon.
(See article below other info.)
The final updates for 2012 small cap shares are below the 2013 list  on the web-site below and on recovery shares below the recovery watchlist for 2012
GO TO SOME REALLY GREAT SMALL CAP GAINS ON THE ALTEX ON PAGE 4
GO TO http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NEW ALERT 5/12.
On the VIX INDEX the lows are creeping upwards since the 12 Sept.The highs show no pattern in particular yet,but we can expect an upward move as the FISCAL CLIFF nears in January.As most of our resources are counted in Dollar terms,it is likely to have a devistating effect upon our share prices over the short term if no agreement is reached.

Info item no1(scroll down to find)

MOST POPULAR POSTS 
 IN MARCH 2012
  1. THE STRIPPING OF SOUTH AFRICAN ASSETS
 2.  APRIL 2012 ECONOMICS AND GOLD
 3. SEPTEMBER 2012 MARIKANA BOILS OVER
 4. OCTOBER 2012  A POLITCAL PLAY
 5. NOVEMBER 2012 A SLOW RETURN TO NORMALITY

INFO ITEM NO2
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATE ABOVE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE.THIS IS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO FIND.THEN THERE'S NO REASON  TO PAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE INDEX FROM THE TOP EACH TIME.
INFO ITEM NO 3
ON THIS POST'S PAGES IN THE COMING MONTHS THE SMALL CAPS WLL BE MOVED TO THEIR OWN WEB PAGE.
THE LINK WLL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE ABOVE
also SEE THE BUSNESS WEEK POST ON THIS NEW HOME:-

http://popgames12.blogspot.com


ARTICLE:-
THE MOST DISTURBING THING THE STRIKES WAS THE INSTRANGIGENCE AND VIOLENCE THAT WENT WITH THE ACTION.IT HAS LEFT AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING THAT WE ARE NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE!
THE MINES COULD NOT EVER COME NEAR WHAT WAS ASKED,HOW EVER THEY LOST SO MUCH IN PRODUCTION,THAT THEIR FUTURE IS NOT ASSURED.
THE MINE BOSSES HAVE VERY VALIANTLY COME FORWARD WITH PLANS TO SAVE THE DAY.
THE FIRST ONE WAS   THE PLATINUM MINER AMPLATS WHO HAVE INFORMED US THAT THEY ARE DOING A COMPLETE REVEIW OF THEIR OPERATIONS AND WILL INFORM THE MARKET IN THE NEW YEAR OF THEIR DECISIONS.
GOLD FIELDS ARE SEPERATING SOME OF THEIR ASSETS FROM THE REST OF THEIR HOLDINGS . LONMIN IS RAISING A RIGHTS ISSUE.
THE REST WILL PROBABLY TAKE ACTION SOON.
 

OCTOBER UPDATE A POLITICAL PLAY

 FURTHER UPDATE 5 OCTOBER Unfortunately this is now turning into a political thing as there is an all out effort to replace the incumbent president namely Zuma with another candidate.It must be noted that he is a Zulu which does not sit well with the Xhosa majority,which has produced every president to date in last eighteen years before Zuma.

SEE RESOURCE TIPS ABOVE ON OCT 17  PAGE and 18 Resource News Post (Above)

This might seem to be an odd statement to make,but let us consider the facts.There is one protected (LEGAL)STRIKE OF TRANSPORT WORKERS ON AT THE MOMENT.ITS TWO YEARS SINCE THEIR LAST NEGOTIATIONS.IT INVOLVES 20,000 DRIVERS OF HEAYY VEHICLE TRANSPORT. THE EMPLOYEES ARE OFFERING 7% INCREASE AND THE WORKERS ARE DEMANDING 12%. THEY ARE NOW ENTERING ARBITRATION ,THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST PAYED  INDUSTRIES.HOW EVER THEY SEEM TO BE SHIFTING IN THEIR DEMANDS AND A GREAT DEAL OF INTIMIDATION IS GOING ON.THERE IS A POLITICAL MOVE AFOOT TO MAKE THE WHOLE COUNTRY UNGOVERNABLE
 FOR THE ILLEGAL STRIKES SEE BELOW  notices.
 For technical analysis visit Oct 1 blog above
All new page updates are mentioned at the bottom of the INDEX ABOVE
WITH MANUFACTURING FALLING IN CHINA AND JAPAN THERE IS A LOWER DEMAND FOR OIL PRODUCTS.THE PRICE IN ASIA IS BEGINNING TO FALL,WHICH SHOULD HAVE A KNOCK ON EFFECT AROUND THE WORLD SOON

There are various strikes which workers are trying to settle with out UNION help,which is illegal.South African unions are affiliated to the INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANISITION OF THE UNITED NATIONS,and follow their rules to the letter.A firm hand is now being applied by Anglo American Platinum the largest mining group.If workers do not return to work they will be payed off soon .The various gold companies are following the same route .Legal pay negotioations will be held next year.

July Updates,Resources reveiws,Info Alerts.

The market is likely to gain moderately this month,probably with some gut wrenching reversals!
We have almost completed the format changes we have  implemented over the last couple of months ,that our veiwers have asked for.We hope this will make this page easier to understand.
All updates are listed above in the index.The newest updates are towards the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX.
1.THE ARTICLES AND OTHER INFO WILL BE GIVEN BELOW (See below 03)
2.THE CURRENCY CONVERTER  WAS ALSO A REQUEST FROM A NUMBER OF OUR VEIWERS NOW APPEARS ON THE STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS  BLOG
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
3.LABELS ARE NOW HIGHER IN THE SIDE-BAR TO MAKE IT EASIER TO CLUSTER LIKE MINDED ARTICLES TOGETHER
Jul 03
1.I feel the reason,that the  Gold price keeps falling these days is that there is no real crises in the world.The general feeling is that all countries are over coming their monetary crises.Now the Gold price only rises when the American Dollar strengthens,which is the reverse of what would happen in areal crises when gold would form the currency of last resort.Most buyers have not enough extra cash in these straighted times to buy Gold.Unless a major war seems to be looming Gold is likely to continue drifting,this might continue for years.So Gold is basically out of favour.
2. This is not the case with Platinum as its price will be higher than Gold as soon as recovery is in full swing as besides being used in jewellery in Asia is a precious metal,is used in catalytic converters and the ever cleaner fuel cell technology.

Febuary Updates

On the day updated thus-(10) We follow the Chinese method of order.i.e. Newest updates at the bottom of the index page(above)!
10 Naomi has updated her resource blog see addresss on 1 below (25)
9 Part two comment down below (18)
 8. WINTER SHARE AND DERIVATIVE COMMENT (17)

 7.NAOMI has updated her 2nd Stoch for Feb,It is very interesting.See no 1 below for address (15)
 6 RECOVERY SHARES (13), (28)

 5.SMALL/MID CAP UPDATE (9)

  4.Alert update (7)

  3.Autumn Share and Derivative update(6) 

  2.Comment for Febuary part 1 below (3)

 1.Naomi has updated her first Stoch (2),(15)
go to-   http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/

        Comment update for Febuary
(PART TWO)
South Africa has placed a sur-charge on Brazil chicken exports of 60% as they accuse them of dumping here.Brazil denies it.
What ever the case it will take a long time to reverse this decision.This is a wonderful opportunity for our chicken producers that have been struggling for years.The prices of ASTRAL,RAINBOW and SOVERIGN should soar
Retailers are doing very well of late.since August last year WHL was not well thought of by most punters but has increased by34% which is the highest on the top 40 of shops.Now every one is following Spar and Shoprite and Masmart(WalMart).Yes they are doing fairly  well.The worst performer in the top 40 is Pick and Pay.that is the one I shall follow with a p/e round12


PART ONE
 1.Adding on what I wrote about  Platinum and Gold last month THE PRICE OF PLATINUM IS LEAPING UP AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE GOLD PRICE SOON,TAKE TODAY ; THE GOLD PRICE INCREASED BY  US$ 7 AND PLATINUM BY US$27 !!!
Do also read the latest updates on the page above. " A developing resource"

                        ALSO
HAVE A LOOK AT LINKS TO OTHER INTERESTING BLOGS

October Comment

2.16/Oct
Well we are in a MIGHTY BEAR MARKET and have been there for four years already.We can only reach this conclusion with hindsight.No wonder it has been so difficult to automatically make a profit!Taking the top 40 since November 2007,the capital loss on Anglo is -27% Amplats -42%,Billiton a measly 13% gain.Most of the other top 40 and second teir shares outside these showed a loss,dividends were cut or reduced to token amounts.Of course there have been mini runs in this time and some shares defied these circumstances such as Exxaro +80%,Kumba+100% SAB +56%. For a change to really occur countries will have to find answers to remaining really solvent and create growth opportunities.

1.1/Oct
WELL RESOURCE SHARES SEEMED TO TUMBLE  IN THE LAST FORTNIGHT ALONG WITH THE DOW.SURELY ONE MUST ASK WHY DID GOLD AND PLATINUM SEEMINGLY JOIN THIS TREND? AFTER ALL THEY ARE SUPPOSED BE A STORE OF WEALTH !
BOTH WENT DOWN BY ABOUT 20% IN VALUE!

THE ANSWER IS ACTUALLY THEY DID NOT FALL THAT FAR AS THE 
U S $  STRENGTHENED AGAINST THE EURO BY ABOUT 12% AS MOSTLY ALL RESOURCES ARE QUOTED IN U S  DOLLARS. THAT STILL LEAVES A FALL OF 8% OVER THAT PERIOD AS ORDINARY PEOPLE PANICKED,NOT UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANICS AND SOLD PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES.THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT PHENOMINON HAS PLAYED OUT.AS LONG AS NOT ENOUGH IS DONE TO STABILISE EUROPE THIS SITUATION MIGHT CONTINUE

GOLD IS LIKELY TO START INCREASING AGAIN SOON AS TREASURIES YEILD IS LOW AND NOT THAT SAFE.PLATINUM MIGHT TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO INCREASE IN PRICEAS DURING A RECESSION THERE MIGHT  NOT BE SUCH A GREAT DEMAND .

I must add that the South African Rand closely follows the Euro as these countries are our main trading partners.

September Update

Nouriel Roubini on Thursday 1 September issued a statement that the United States  won't be able to avoid a second recession,also that gold is in a bubble.

The markets that were wobbly then fell further on this  observation .I agree with the first obsevation as their politicians are proving that they are spineless and are only interested in re-election.As Ben Bernanke said their reserve bank can do so much more if the Fed had support from their government.Their polititians must be prepared to "bite the bullet" and do whats best for their country by increasing taxes whilst cutting social services,except for the very poorest.This is one weakness of democracy.I hope our own government will also take steps in the same direction.Socialism in any form has proved a failure so taxes should be broad based such as sales taxes.

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Gold, Platinum

So gold might be in a bubble,according to

Roubini.So what!I have been a trader for a long time and gold and platinum is the only thing the ordinary person can buy and keep to offset  the inflationary environment at the moment as governments try to get out of their messes by printing paper money with little or no backing!

 This is not a bubble that will break any time soon as gold has only kept up with inflation over the last twenty years.A good sign that it is not overvalued is the physical Indian marraige season now in full swing as they scramble to buy as much gold jewellery as they can.In the past when they don't buy and rely on heirlooms then we know it is overpriced as has happened in the past.They are very canny gold traders.

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Gold and Platinum prices are going up in tandem at the moment

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Do use labels to cluster subjects that you are interested on the left hand side side column at the bottom of this page

   UPDATES FOR SEPTEMBER 

ALERT NO 1 and 2 
SPRING COMMENT PAGE 3 
SUMMER COMMENT PAGE 4 (NEW LIST)                              

ALSO

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Naomi has updated her Stoch mid month blog

Naomi has updated her first Stochastic Analysis for September ,see links to other  sites above for a direct link and her resource blog on her second page

AND SEE OUR LIFESTYLE LATEST BOOK OFFERINGS FOR A HEALTHY BETTER LIFE .LINK ON LINK PAGE