DECEMBER The "FISCAL CLIFF"

FINAL ALERT 28/12/2012
The canny American Politicians realise that the Americans will have to fork out more money in taxes if America is to keep its super power status and other steps have to be taken to balance the budget, as well as keeping positive programs in their society.Never a popular move for any demoncratically elected government to take.Certain political suicide for any party associated with increases.So they are likely to let some of the fiscal cliff  go through.Then they can propose softening the most contentious parts and that will be well received by all.They might just increase the debt ceiling now.
The wildcat strikes have taken their toll on especially Gold and Platinum mines .With out further structurng the majority are in or will run into a monetary deficit soon.
(See article below other info.)
The final updates for 2012 small cap shares are below the 2013 list  on the web-site below and on recovery shares below the recovery watchlist for 2012
GO TO SOME REALLY GREAT SMALL CAP GAINS ON THE ALTEX ON PAGE 4
GO TO http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NEW ALERT 5/12.
On the VIX INDEX the lows are creeping upwards since the 12 Sept.The highs show no pattern in particular yet,but we can expect an upward move as the FISCAL CLIFF nears in January.As most of our resources are counted in Dollar terms,it is likely to have a devistating effect upon our share prices over the short term if no agreement is reached.

Info item no1(scroll down to find)

MOST POPULAR POSTS 
 IN MARCH 2012
  1. THE STRIPPING OF SOUTH AFRICAN ASSETS
 2.  APRIL 2012 ECONOMICS AND GOLD
 3. SEPTEMBER 2012 MARIKANA BOILS OVER
 4. OCTOBER 2012  A POLITCAL PLAY
 5. NOVEMBER 2012 A SLOW RETURN TO NORMALITY

INFO ITEM NO2
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATE ABOVE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE.THIS IS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO FIND.THEN THERE'S NO REASON  TO PAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE INDEX FROM THE TOP EACH TIME.
INFO ITEM NO 3
ON THIS POST'S PAGES IN THE COMING MONTHS THE SMALL CAPS WLL BE MOVED TO THEIR OWN WEB PAGE.
THE LINK WLL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE ABOVE
also SEE THE BUSNESS WEEK POST ON THIS NEW HOME:-

http://popgames12.blogspot.com


ARTICLE:-
THE MOST DISTURBING THING THE STRIKES WAS THE INSTRANGIGENCE AND VIOLENCE THAT WENT WITH THE ACTION.IT HAS LEFT AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING THAT WE ARE NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE!
THE MINES COULD NOT EVER COME NEAR WHAT WAS ASKED,HOW EVER THEY LOST SO MUCH IN PRODUCTION,THAT THEIR FUTURE IS NOT ASSURED.
THE MINE BOSSES HAVE VERY VALIANTLY COME FORWARD WITH PLANS TO SAVE THE DAY.
THE FIRST ONE WAS   THE PLATINUM MINER AMPLATS WHO HAVE INFORMED US THAT THEY ARE DOING A COMPLETE REVEIW OF THEIR OPERATIONS AND WILL INFORM THE MARKET IN THE NEW YEAR OF THEIR DECISIONS.
GOLD FIELDS ARE SEPERATING SOME OF THEIR ASSETS FROM THE REST OF THEIR HOLDINGS . LONMIN IS RAISING A RIGHTS ISSUE.
THE REST WILL PROBABLY TAKE ACTION SOON.
 

NOVEMBER A slow return to normality ?

The after effects of the labour disruptions,are being felt by every one in our country,but we are ever hopeful that the worst is behind us and in time the economy will recover fast enough to give us all a sustainable better life ! (See article below)
SEE NAOMI'S RESOURCE UPDATE ABOVE
NAOMI SAYS SHE HAS NEVER SEEN THE MARKET SO OVER SOLD GO TO HER TECH ANALYSIS ABOVE FOR MORE INFO 19/11/2012

USE LABELS UNDER POSTS TO CLUSTER LIKE SUBJECTS TOGETHER.ALSO SEE LABELS IN THE SIDE-BAR .
IF YOU WISH TO FOLLOW BY  E-MAIL SEE BUTTON NEAR BOTTOM OF SIDE-BAR

The Gold mines are using collective bargaining which seems to be working for them,how ever the Platinum and Chrome mines in mostly North West ,Mupumalanga and Limpopo provinces are working towards this model,but are finding the going sticky.
I for one cannot see how this is going to work as there so many different types of mining procedure and richer on poorer ore bodies,opencast and tunnels etc.
The workers in these provinces as well as those coming from the Eastern Cape are highly politicised and seem to have a political agenda as well.There is a rumour that some of their basic needs are been seen to ,by elements unknown. The National Union of Mineworkers which is reconised held a meeting this week which was well attended,when  rival organisions turned up armed to teeth half way through their meeting and tried to disrupt it.The police had their hands full keeping the two groups apart!
The platinum mines are now looking for various ways to save money as they are mostly working at a loss and raise money to carry on.
THE WORD MECHANISATION IS BEING BANDIED ABOUT.Let us not forget that about ten years ago Lonmin went ahead with such a scheme.At the time the other majors did not.Well it was an absolute flop as they lost out and made much less money at a time that platinum was thriving than their rivals .Some ore bodies of the platinum group are more than a thousand meters below ground!


1

OCTOBER UPDATE A POLITICAL PLAY

 FURTHER UPDATE 5 OCTOBER Unfortunately this is now turning into a political thing as there is an all out effort to replace the incumbent president namely Zuma with another candidate.It must be noted that he is a Zulu which does not sit well with the Xhosa majority,which has produced every president to date in last eighteen years before Zuma.

SEE RESOURCE TIPS ABOVE ON OCT 17  PAGE and 18 Resource News Post (Above)

This might seem to be an odd statement to make,but let us consider the facts.There is one protected (LEGAL)STRIKE OF TRANSPORT WORKERS ON AT THE MOMENT.ITS TWO YEARS SINCE THEIR LAST NEGOTIATIONS.IT INVOLVES 20,000 DRIVERS OF HEAYY VEHICLE TRANSPORT. THE EMPLOYEES ARE OFFERING 7% INCREASE AND THE WORKERS ARE DEMANDING 12%. THEY ARE NOW ENTERING ARBITRATION ,THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST PAYED  INDUSTRIES.HOW EVER THEY SEEM TO BE SHIFTING IN THEIR DEMANDS AND A GREAT DEAL OF INTIMIDATION IS GOING ON.THERE IS A POLITICAL MOVE AFOOT TO MAKE THE WHOLE COUNTRY UNGOVERNABLE
 FOR THE ILLEGAL STRIKES SEE BELOW  notices.
 For technical analysis visit Oct 1 blog above
All new page updates are mentioned at the bottom of the INDEX ABOVE
WITH MANUFACTURING FALLING IN CHINA AND JAPAN THERE IS A LOWER DEMAND FOR OIL PRODUCTS.THE PRICE IN ASIA IS BEGINNING TO FALL,WHICH SHOULD HAVE A KNOCK ON EFFECT AROUND THE WORLD SOON

There are various strikes which workers are trying to settle with out UNION help,which is illegal.South African unions are affiliated to the INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANISITION OF THE UNITED NATIONS,and follow their rules to the letter.A firm hand is now being applied by Anglo American Platinum the largest mining group.If workers do not return to work they will be payed off soon .The various gold companies are following the same route .Legal pay negotioations will be held next year.

September Update Marikana boils over!

Yes the world focused on South Africa last month.Unfortunately for all the wrong reasons.The events have been reported on in detail at the Marikana mine.However many of the reports were wrong.So therefore I shall attempt to correct some misconceptions.
At the root of the problem is of course the world depression(disguised by governments as a recession) for political purposes.Along with Greece and other poorer countries frustrations are rising at the lack of opportunities to earn a living wage.It seems this problem will have to work its way through as very little can be done to stimulate world trade.(See rest of article below)
See latest page updates above,see Naomi's update on Jubilee Plat on her blog.

1.Now turning to Marikana in particular.Some workers had been paid off over a period of time and these people formed the core of discontented so called strikers.

2.The large National Union of Miners( NUM) had struck a deal with Lonmin that they would not strike for three years and then renegotiate another deal.They then received better than average pay and working conditions.This is the second such period and it has worked very well up to now for all concerned.

3.NUM expelled some shop stewards that did  want to stick to the deal they had signed.They promptly formed their own union and made rash demands to attract new members.When this did not work very well they employed gang members as enforcers to intimidate their own and NUM members,preventing them from going to work.They met resistance from NUM workers and then turned to savagery and hacked at
 least ten workers to death.

4.This is when the police were called in.They tried water cannon and rubber bullets,but were shot at as well ,by the malcontents who were slowly turning into an organised army,who already killed two policemen.A difficult situation to be sure.The police probably panicked and then killed fort five of the "strikers".

5. A commission of enquiry isto be held to determine if this could have been handled differently ,which is a good response.

6.The minimum wage for an unskilled worker is around R4000 per month basic.On top of this target pay,daily production and other incentives are paid to  willing workers turning up for the job.Constant training is available to get workers to higher levels of education.Their pay is in the order of about R7000 plus per month.Skilled artisans receive around R11000 plus per month.  (One US Dollar equals eight Rand 40 Cents).

8.Unfortunately politicians now want those arrested for the violence to go free.They should be allowed to have their day in court where their case can be fairly judged. 
9.With public opinion mostly now firmly on the side of the malcontents,this lesser union is again starting to intimidate the NUM workers. They are slowly giving up their jobs and returning to their homes although the mines now hire armed security to protect them on mine property.
10.With falling platinum prices,not enough workers,Lonmin now needs cash to carry on with the mining.this might not be forthcoming and the mine may have close its doors,a greater disaster for all concerned.
11. It does seem if this problem will not spread to other mining houses as they have taken steps to inform their own workers of the consequences of all forms of action.
AS ALWAYS THE ABOVE VEIWS ARE ONLY MY PERSONAL OPINION

AUGUST Updates Economics, see newest Posts above

 (8.30 PM SOUTH AFRICAN TIME 1/8/2012)
Bernanke will continue operation twist,but will take no further new steps and if labour continues to decline will consider additional steps at the Sept 12/13 meeting.Very predictable ,I would say.
See latest page updates above and commetary below.
For the latest on Gold and Platinum go to New Alert above
THANKS TO ALL BLOGGERS THAT VISITED THE SIDE-BAR items.

1.Over the next couple of days both Europe and American reserve banks will decide what they might do to prevent their economies from sliding into another recession.They are likely to disappoint the market as what ever they do it will be deemed too little too late! How ever I feel the recovery continues slowly world wide.Rash actions by reserve banks to bolster economies,usually makes the private sector lazy and then they demand more and more as they do less themselves.Printing money with out backing is an eventual road to disaster.

July Updates,Resources reveiws,Info Alerts.

The market is likely to gain moderately this month,probably with some gut wrenching reversals!
We have almost completed the format changes we have  implemented over the last couple of months ,that our veiwers have asked for.We hope this will make this page easier to understand.
All updates are listed above in the index.The newest updates are towards the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX.
1.THE ARTICLES AND OTHER INFO WILL BE GIVEN BELOW (See below 03)
2.THE CURRENCY CONVERTER  WAS ALSO A REQUEST FROM A NUMBER OF OUR VEIWERS NOW APPEARS ON THE STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS  BLOG
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
3.LABELS ARE NOW HIGHER IN THE SIDE-BAR TO MAKE IT EASIER TO CLUSTER LIKE MINDED ARTICLES TOGETHER
Jul 03
1.I feel the reason,that the  Gold price keeps falling these days is that there is no real crises in the world.The general feeling is that all countries are over coming their monetary crises.Now the Gold price only rises when the American Dollar strengthens,which is the reverse of what would happen in areal crises when gold would form the currency of last resort.Most buyers have not enough extra cash in these straighted times to buy Gold.Unless a major war seems to be looming Gold is likely to continue drifting,this might continue for years.So Gold is basically out of favour.
2. This is not the case with Platinum as its price will be higher than Gold as soon as recovery is in full swing as besides being used in jewellery in Asia is a precious metal,is used in catalytic converters and the ever cleaner fuel cell technology.

June Update Dramatic events

 SEE DRAMATIC EVENTS AND BEST STRATERGIES BY VISITING :-
ABOVE
SEE THE NEW MARKET DIVERGENCE
See Naomi's small caps .go to her Stoch below for address
For some personal info
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DATE EACH ENTRY IS POSTED NEXT TO TITLE

 Now SPRING SHARE UPDATE,
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My best choices

MINI SMALL CAPS,WINTER SHARE AND DERIVATIVE UPDATE, SMALL/MID CAPS,Alert,Small/Mid Recovery Shares (above)
         
(2), (7), (12) For the latest  Continuous Warrant reports
                            and
            Real Estate News part A
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                 AND BELOW

       (1)VISIT the post below FOR A GLOBAL EVENTS OVERVEIW AFFECTING THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
Note date of updates in brackets thus =(1) in June

Dramatic Happenings GLOBALLY

JUNE 2012
TIME TO STAND BACK ,TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND DO A SOBER REVEIW OF WORLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.

WE ARE BEEN TOLD THAT IF GREECE DEFAULTS IT WOULD CAUSE AN ECONOMIC TIDAL WAVE ,GREATER THAN ANY NATURAL TIDAL WAVE THAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST.
YES FOR SURE THERE WILL BE REPECUSSIONS,BUT LET US NOT FORGET THIS PROBLEM HAS BEEN CAUSED BY POITICIANS INTERFERING IN ECONOMIC AFFAIRS YET AGAIN.
IN THE FIRST PLACE GREECE SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO JOIN THE EURO MONETARY UNION AS THEY NEVER QULIFIED COMPLETELY
NOW THE AUSTERITY MEASURES IMPOSED UPON THEM ARE SO SEVERE THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THEY CAN EVER RECOVER OR EXPAND WHILE IN THE EURO MONETARY UNION AGAIN. NOW THE QUESTION MUST BE ASKED IF THEY DEFAULT WILL THE INITIAL SHOCK DESTABLISE WORLD MARKETS COMPLETELY?. SURELY NOT AS THEY HAVE HAD TWO "HAIRCUTS" i.e. MINI DEFAULTS ALREADY. MARKETS ARE ALREADY DICOUNTING THIS ALMOST INEVITABLE OUTCOME BY RETRACTING WORLD-WIDE.WHEN GREECE RETURNS TO THEIR OWN ECONOMIC SYSTEM THEY WILL IMMEDIATELY DEVALUE THEIR OWN CURRENCY.WHILE THIS IN THE LONG RUN IS NOT DESIRABLE IT WILL RELEIVE THE PRESSURE UPON ITS FISCUS AND GIVE IT A PERIOD OF CALM TO STILL MAKE MARKET CHANGES AND INSTALL CONFIDENCE IN ITS CITIZENS.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WHICH CAN NEVER REPAY ITS DEBT HAS BOASTED THAT IT CAN NEVER FALL INTO THE MESS THAT THE EURO NATIONS ARE IN AS IT CAN PRINT AS MUCH MONEY AS IS NEEDED TO AVOID SUCH A SITUATION!WORLD-WIDE THE PRACTICE OF PRINTING MONEY WITHOUT PROPER BACKING LEADS TO DE-FACTO DEVALUATION OF A CURRENCY. 
Now the major countries of the world are trying to keep the Euro Monetary Area intact.If they succeed it will delay the recovery  of the EURO  ZONE for a long time.France is already suffering under the weight of the monies lent to the PIGS countries.
                     ALSO
WORTH A VISIT;
For PROPERTY UP DATES see the page
My REAL ESTATE PART A
ON:
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             ALSO
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MAY UPDATE see NEW FEATURES

THE DATE THAT EACH ENTRY IS POSTED IS PUT NEXT TO THE ITEM.(THE NEWEST POSTS CAN BE FOUND AT THE BOTTOM OF INDEX ABOVE)

THE  STOCH THIS MONTH HAS BEEN UPDATED
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 SEE NAOMI'S SMALL CAP RESOURCE UPDATE
CLICK ON ADDRESS ON

 Do visit Naomi's Stoch Analyser plus her very important comments ,more shares to be included from mid month

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MONTHLY FOR SOME INTIMATE GLIMPSES OF OUR DOINGS   OUR LIFESTYLE    
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MARCH updates

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The Stripping of South African Resource Assets Part 1

The old National government before 1994 had many ills
Its seperate development was totally unacceptable to many white South Africans as well as indigenous population.The major mining groups and major industry also opposed it.It took many years of persuasion and sanctions to bring about change which was finally a good thing.
How ever there were many good policies in place to keep the mines operating for longer periods and keep all the population employed at livable wages.
This is no longer the case.
Lets examine how this state of affairs has arisen.
1.First there was a gentlemans  agreement between the major miners and the government to not mechanise all operations except the dangerous and very heavy work areas and employ as many workers as possible.This has now changed and 860,000 jobs have been lost since 1994.Overseas first world countries are also guilty of encouraging these practices of mechanising all operations.
2.As the population becomes more frustrated at not having work and few new jos are being created the radical element is gaining support amongst the mainstream populace.Take the firebrand Malema and members of his ilk.Although he has been removed from political  influence for the time being ,opinions are obviously moving in the direction of nationalisation.
This is now bolting the mining sector.Overseas investors are not keen to invest money,in mines where it might be seized at some future time.
3.Now the government has come up with legisation which is now enforced ,which states that the land belongs to the government and mines have have lost the right to own their claims.The land they lease from the government is on a basis of "use it  or loose it!"The government's  policy is shifting on this issue and have been known to give the same land to different mining groups ,leading  to many challenges in court.This lead to many mining enterprises mining uneconomical reefs just to hold on to their claims.
4.Pre 1994 to take an example gold mines used to mine the lower paying reefs when the price was high and the richer reefs whenthe price of gold was low.ALL TYPES OF RESOURCE MINES OPERATED IN THIS WAY.NOW THE POLICY IS TO MINE THE RICHEST REEFS FIRST IN CASE SOME
NEW LEGISLATION SHOULD MAKE MINING UNPROFITABLE.
EVEN COAL MINERS ARE MINING THE BETTER QUALITY COAL SEAMS TO MAKE SOME PROFITS EIRST
5.ADDED TO THIS IS NEW MINING TAXES MAKING MINING AN ONEROUS BUSINESS.
6.ILLEGAL STRIKES by mining union for rediculous reasons might be the final straw that breaks the camels back now occuring more regularly.
Overseas governments should find it in their own interests to discourage some of these practices where they still have influence.

Febuary Updates

On the day updated thus-(10) We follow the Chinese method of order.i.e. Newest updates at the bottom of the index page(above)!
10 Naomi has updated her resource blog see addresss on 1 below (25)
9 Part two comment down below (18)
 8. WINTER SHARE AND DERIVATIVE COMMENT (17)

 7.NAOMI has updated her 2nd Stoch for Feb,It is very interesting.See no 1 below for address (15)
 6 RECOVERY SHARES (13), (28)

 5.SMALL/MID CAP UPDATE (9)

  4.Alert update (7)

  3.Autumn Share and Derivative update(6) 

  2.Comment for Febuary part 1 below (3)

 1.Naomi has updated her first Stoch (2),(15)
go to-   http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/

        Comment update for Febuary
(PART TWO)
South Africa has placed a sur-charge on Brazil chicken exports of 60% as they accuse them of dumping here.Brazil denies it.
What ever the case it will take a long time to reverse this decision.This is a wonderful opportunity for our chicken producers that have been struggling for years.The prices of ASTRAL,RAINBOW and SOVERIGN should soar
Retailers are doing very well of late.since August last year WHL was not well thought of by most punters but has increased by34% which is the highest on the top 40 of shops.Now every one is following Spar and Shoprite and Masmart(WalMart).Yes they are doing fairly  well.The worst performer in the top 40 is Pick and Pay.that is the one I shall follow with a p/e round12


PART ONE
 1.Adding on what I wrote about  Platinum and Gold last month THE PRICE OF PLATINUM IS LEAPING UP AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE GOLD PRICE SOON,TAKE TODAY ; THE GOLD PRICE INCREASED BY  US$ 7 AND PLATINUM BY US$27 !!!
Do also read the latest updates on the page above. " A developing resource"

                        ALSO
HAVE A LOOK AT LINKS TO OTHER INTERESTING BLOGS

2012 January Update

Day of UPDATE=(2)
  11.New Recovery shares updated (25)
 10.REAL ESTATE by BARRY PART A UPDATED go to Naomi's Stoch website see item no 7. below(21)
  9.Winter Share and Derivitive Club Update(17) (19)
  8.NAOMI has updated her small cap resources see 7. below for address.Platinum is recovering at a greater pace than Gold (12)

  7.Naomi's Stoch Update (11) go to

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/

 6.AUTUMN UPDATE (10)

 5.New Alert updated(9)

 4,SMALL CAP UPDATE (7)  (11)   (19)

3.FINAL SUMMER LIST PUBLISHED (5)

2.RECOVERY(SECOND WIND SHARES) UPDATED(see above)(4) (11)(19)

1.See Article below January 2 on 2012
Prospects(2)
FOR NEW STRATERGIES READ "SMART MONEY IN THE SIDE-BAR

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PROSPECTS in 2012

   I have no intention of dwelling in the past,but feel it must  be pointed out that last year produced a loss on the TOP 40 shares for the first time since 2008 on the JSE.Although South Africa fared better than all the other BRICS countries(developing nations) the loss was heavier for foreigners as they lost on average 20% of value due to the weakening of the Rand.
   Now as to this year ,the crises in the Euro Zone is likely to continue for some time to come.The ultimate answer will no doubt lead to a re-structuring of the Euro-Union,but that is unlikely to happen for  a number of years.Partial answers buy time and as those economies tighten their belts, they will start pulling out of the worst of the problem probably towards the end of 2012.
     Now all this will have an effect upon RESOURCE PRICES pushing them down to lower levels.How ever on the other side of the coin,mines cannot cut costs any further as they are in greater number starting to run at losses worldwide,most are already tightening their belts,soon the smaller operations will start to close down and therefore one should only concentrate on larger projects as they can survive longer.Platinum and Gold miners have been hard hit in Southern Africa as with the weakening Rand inflation is moving their costs much higher.
    Eventually a shortage of essential minerals such as iron and other related ores will develop and the recovering world will lead to better conditions again. 2013 will in all likeness be the start of another great up-swing