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Friday, March 2, 2012
Thursday, March 1, 2012
The Stripping of South African Resource Assets Part 1
The old National government before 1994 had many ills
Its seperate development was totally unacceptable to many white South Africans as well as indigenous population.The major mining groups and major industry also opposed it.It took many years of persuasion and sanctions to bring about change which was finally a good thing.
How ever there were many good policies in place to keep the mines operating for longer periods and keep all the population employed at livable wages.
This is no longer the case.
Lets examine how this state of affairs has arisen.
1.First there was a gentlemans agreement between the major miners and the government to not mechanise all operations except the dangerous and very heavy work areas and employ as many workers as possible.This has now changed and 860,000 jobs have been lost since 1994.Overseas first world countries are also guilty of encouraging these practices of mechanising all operations.
2.As the population becomes more frustrated at not having work and few new jos are being created the radical element is gaining support amongst the mainstream populace.Take the firebrand Malema and members of his ilk.Although he has been removed from political influence for the time being ,opinions are obviously moving in the direction of nationalisation.
This is now bolting the mining sector.Overseas investors are not keen to invest money,in mines where it might be seized at some future time.
3.Now the government has come up with legisation which is now enforced ,which states that the land belongs to the government and mines have have lost the right to own their claims.The land they lease from the government is on a basis of "use it or loose it!"The government's policy is shifting on this issue and have been known to give the same land to different mining groups ,leading to many challenges in court.This lead to many mining enterprises mining uneconomical reefs just to hold on to their claims.
4.Pre 1994 to take an example gold mines used to mine the lower paying reefs when the price was high and the richer reefs whenthe price of gold was low.ALL TYPES OF RESOURCE MINES OPERATED IN THIS WAY.NOW THE POLICY IS TO MINE THE RICHEST REEFS FIRST IN CASE SOME
NEW LEGISLATION SHOULD MAKE MINING UNPROFITABLE.
EVEN COAL MINERS ARE MINING THE BETTER QUALITY COAL SEAMS TO MAKE SOME PROFITS EIRST
5.ADDED TO THIS IS NEW MINING TAXES MAKING MINING AN ONEROUS BUSINESS.
6.ILLEGAL STRIKES by mining union for rediculous reasons might be the final straw that breaks the camels back now occuring more regularly.
Overseas governments should find it in their own interests to discourage some of these practices where they still have influence.
Its seperate development was totally unacceptable to many white South Africans as well as indigenous population.The major mining groups and major industry also opposed it.It took many years of persuasion and sanctions to bring about change which was finally a good thing.
How ever there were many good policies in place to keep the mines operating for longer periods and keep all the population employed at livable wages.
This is no longer the case.
Lets examine how this state of affairs has arisen.
1.First there was a gentlemans agreement between the major miners and the government to not mechanise all operations except the dangerous and very heavy work areas and employ as many workers as possible.This has now changed and 860,000 jobs have been lost since 1994.Overseas first world countries are also guilty of encouraging these practices of mechanising all operations.
2.As the population becomes more frustrated at not having work and few new jos are being created the radical element is gaining support amongst the mainstream populace.Take the firebrand Malema and members of his ilk.Although he has been removed from political influence for the time being ,opinions are obviously moving in the direction of nationalisation.
This is now bolting the mining sector.Overseas investors are not keen to invest money,in mines where it might be seized at some future time.
3.Now the government has come up with legisation which is now enforced ,which states that the land belongs to the government and mines have have lost the right to own their claims.The land they lease from the government is on a basis of "use it or loose it!"The government's policy is shifting on this issue and have been known to give the same land to different mining groups ,leading to many challenges in court.This lead to many mining enterprises mining uneconomical reefs just to hold on to their claims.
4.Pre 1994 to take an example gold mines used to mine the lower paying reefs when the price was high and the richer reefs whenthe price of gold was low.ALL TYPES OF RESOURCE MINES OPERATED IN THIS WAY.NOW THE POLICY IS TO MINE THE RICHEST REEFS FIRST IN CASE SOME
NEW LEGISLATION SHOULD MAKE MINING UNPROFITABLE.
EVEN COAL MINERS ARE MINING THE BETTER QUALITY COAL SEAMS TO MAKE SOME PROFITS EIRST
5.ADDED TO THIS IS NEW MINING TAXES MAKING MINING AN ONEROUS BUSINESS.
6.ILLEGAL STRIKES by mining union for rediculous reasons might be the final straw that breaks the camels back now occuring more regularly.
Overseas governments should find it in their own interests to discourage some of these practices where they still have influence.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Febuary Updates
On the day updated thus-(10) We follow the Chinese method of order.i.e. Newest updates at the bottom of the index page(above)!
10 Naomi has updated her resource blog see addresss on 1 below (25)
9 Part two comment down below (18)
8. WINTER SHARE AND DERIVATIVE COMMENT (17)
7.NAOMI has updated her 2nd Stoch for Feb,It is very interesting.See no 1 below for address (15)
6 RECOVERY SHARES (13), (28)
5.SMALL/MID CAP UPDATE (9)
4.Alert update (7)
3.Autumn Share and Derivative update(6)
2.Comment for Febuary part 1 below (3)
1.Naomi has updated her first Stoch (2),(15)
go to- http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
Comment update for Febuary
(PART TWO)
South Africa has placed a sur-charge on Brazil chicken exports of 60% as they accuse them of dumping here.Brazil denies it.
What ever the case it will take a long time to reverse this decision.This is a wonderful opportunity for our chicken producers that have been struggling for years.The prices of ASTRAL,RAINBOW and SOVERIGN should soar
Retailers are doing very well of late.since August last year WHL was not well thought of by most punters but has increased by34% which is the highest on the top 40 of shops.Now every one is following Spar and Shoprite and Masmart(WalMart).Yes they are doing fairly well.The worst performer in the top 40 is Pick and Pay.that is the one I shall follow with a p/e round12
PART ONE
1.Adding on what I wrote about Platinum and Gold last month THE PRICE OF PLATINUM IS LEAPING UP AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE GOLD PRICE SOON,TAKE TODAY ; THE GOLD PRICE INCREASED BY US$ 7 AND PLATINUM BY US$27 !!!
Do also read the latest updates on the page above. " A developing resource"
ALSO
HAVE A LOOK AT LINKS TO OTHER INTERESTING BLOGS
10 Naomi has updated her resource blog see addresss on 1 below (25)
9 Part two comment down below (18)
8. WINTER SHARE AND DERIVATIVE COMMENT (17)
7.NAOMI has updated her 2nd Stoch for Feb,It is very interesting.See no 1 below for address (15)
6 RECOVERY SHARES (13), (28)
5.SMALL/MID CAP UPDATE (9)
4.Alert update (7)
3.Autumn Share and Derivative update(6)
2.Comment for Febuary part 1 below (3)
1.Naomi has updated her first Stoch (2),(15)
go to- http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
Comment update for Febuary
(PART TWO)
South Africa has placed a sur-charge on Brazil chicken exports of 60% as they accuse them of dumping here.Brazil denies it.
What ever the case it will take a long time to reverse this decision.This is a wonderful opportunity for our chicken producers that have been struggling for years.The prices of ASTRAL,RAINBOW and SOVERIGN should soar
Retailers are doing very well of late.since August last year WHL was not well thought of by most punters but has increased by34% which is the highest on the top 40 of shops.Now every one is following Spar and Shoprite and Masmart(WalMart).Yes they are doing fairly well.The worst performer in the top 40 is Pick and Pay.that is the one I shall follow with a p/e round12
PART ONE
1.Adding on what I wrote about Platinum and Gold last month THE PRICE OF PLATINUM IS LEAPING UP AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THE GOLD PRICE SOON,TAKE TODAY ; THE GOLD PRICE INCREASED BY US$ 7 AND PLATINUM BY US$27 !!!
Do also read the latest updates on the page above. " A developing resource"
ALSO
HAVE A LOOK AT LINKS TO OTHER INTERESTING BLOGS
Monday, January 2, 2012
2012 January Update
Day of UPDATE=(2)
11.New Recovery shares updated (25)
10.REAL ESTATE by BARRY PART A UPDATED go to Naomi's Stoch website see item no 7. below(21)
9.Winter Share and Derivitive Club Update(17) (19)
8.NAOMI has updated her small cap resources see 7. below for address.Platinum is recovering at a greater pace than Gold (12)
7.Naomi's Stoch Update (11) go to
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
6.AUTUMN UPDATE (10)
5.New Alert updated(9)
4,SMALL CAP UPDATE (7) (11) (19)
3.FINAL SUMMER LIST PUBLISHED (5)
2.RECOVERY(SECOND WIND SHARES) UPDATED(see above)(4) (11)(19)
1.See Article below January 2 on 2012
Prospects(2)
FOR NEW STRATERGIES READ "SMART MONEY IN THE SIDE-BAR
Use labels in the left-hand column below to cluster any subject you may be interested in.
Do bookmark this blog or use e-mail for regular updates
HAVE A LOOK AT AUTO AND HOBBIES BLOG
http://touristssouthaffrica.blogspot.com/
11.New Recovery shares updated (25)
10.REAL ESTATE by BARRY PART A UPDATED go to Naomi's Stoch website see item no 7. below(21)
9.Winter Share and Derivitive Club Update(17) (19)
8.NAOMI has updated her small cap resources see 7. below for address.Platinum is recovering at a greater pace than Gold (12)
7.Naomi's Stoch Update (11) go to
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
6.AUTUMN UPDATE (10)
5.New Alert updated(9)
4,SMALL CAP UPDATE (7) (11) (19)
3.FINAL SUMMER LIST PUBLISHED (5)
2.RECOVERY(SECOND WIND SHARES) UPDATED(see above)(4) (11)(19)
1.See Article below January 2 on 2012
Prospects(2)
FOR NEW STRATERGIES READ "SMART MONEY IN THE SIDE-BAR
Use labels in the left-hand column below to cluster any subject you may be interested in.
Do bookmark this blog or use e-mail for regular updates
HAVE A LOOK AT AUTO AND HOBBIES BLOG
http://touristssouthaffrica.blogspot.com/
PROSPECTS in 2012
I have no intention of dwelling in the past,but feel it must be pointed out that last year produced a loss on the TOP 40 shares for the first time since 2008 on the JSE.Although South Africa fared better than all the other BRICS countries(developing nations) the loss was heavier for foreigners as they lost on average 20% of value due to the weakening of the Rand.
Now as to this year ,the crises in the Euro Zone is likely to continue for some time to come.The ultimate answer will no doubt lead to a re-structuring of the Euro-Union,but that is unlikely to happen for a number of years.Partial answers buy time and as those economies tighten their belts, they will start pulling out of the worst of the problem probably towards the end of 2012.
Now all this will have an effect upon RESOURCE PRICES pushing them down to lower levels.How ever on the other side of the coin,mines cannot cut costs any further as they are in greater number starting to run at losses worldwide,most are already tightening their belts,soon the smaller operations will start to close down and therefore one should only concentrate on larger projects as they can survive longer.Platinum and Gold miners have been hard hit in Southern Africa as with the weakening Rand inflation is moving their costs much higher.
Eventually a shortage of essential minerals such as iron and other related ores will develop and the recovering world will lead to better conditions again. 2013 will in all likeness be the start of another great up-swing
Now as to this year ,the crises in the Euro Zone is likely to continue for some time to come.The ultimate answer will no doubt lead to a re-structuring of the Euro-Union,but that is unlikely to happen for a number of years.Partial answers buy time and as those economies tighten their belts, they will start pulling out of the worst of the problem probably towards the end of 2012.
Now all this will have an effect upon RESOURCE PRICES pushing them down to lower levels.How ever on the other side of the coin,mines cannot cut costs any further as they are in greater number starting to run at losses worldwide,most are already tightening their belts,soon the smaller operations will start to close down and therefore one should only concentrate on larger projects as they can survive longer.Platinum and Gold miners have been hard hit in Southern Africa as with the weakening Rand inflation is moving their costs much higher.
Eventually a shortage of essential minerals such as iron and other related ores will develop and the recovering world will lead to better conditions again. 2013 will in all likeness be the start of another great up-swing
Friday, December 2, 2011
December Updates and Comments
Days that updates shown below ,on this blog,in December thus =(2)
A.1 Go to second wind shares for latest update (see above) (3),(7)
A.2a Autumn Comment page 5 (6)
2b Summer comment update (19)
A.3 NEW ALERT (7),(13),(14)
A.4 SMALL,MID CAP SHARES 2012 (8)(14)(19)(20)(21)
A.5 SMALL CAP SHARES 2011 (15)
B Naomi has entered her first Stoch report (2) and second report (15)
Also check Naomi's resource update for GOLD page two (12)
Go to :
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
ALSO CHECK.....
OUR.....LIFESTYLE ,FOR A LIGHTER LOOK AT LIFE !
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.
A.1 Go to second wind shares for latest update (see above) (3),(7)
A.2a Autumn Comment page 5 (6)
2b Summer comment update (19)
A.3 NEW ALERT (7),(13),(14)
A.4 SMALL,MID CAP SHARES 2012 (8)(14)(19)(20)(21)
A.5 SMALL CAP SHARES 2011 (15)
B Naomi has entered her first Stoch report (2) and second report (15)
Also check Naomi's resource update for GOLD page two (12)
Go to :
http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/
ALSO CHECK.....
OUR.....LIFESTYLE ,FOR A LIGHTER LOOK AT LIFE !
http://bnlifestyle10.blogspot.com/
and
if you love your pet
http://paws2012.blogspot.com/
.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
October Comment
2.16/Oct
Well we are in a MIGHTY BEAR MARKET and have been there for four years already.We can only reach this conclusion with hindsight.No wonder it has been so difficult to automatically make a profit!Taking the top 40 since November 2007,the capital loss on Anglo is -27% Amplats -42%,Billiton a measly 13% gain.Most of the other top 40 and second teir shares outside these showed a loss,dividends were cut or reduced to token amounts.Of course there have been mini runs in this time and some shares defied these circumstances such as Exxaro +80%,Kumba+100% SAB +56%. For a change to really occur countries will have to find answers to remaining really solvent and create growth opportunities.
1.1/Oct
WELL RESOURCE SHARES SEEMED TO TUMBLE IN THE LAST FORTNIGHT ALONG WITH THE DOW.SURELY ONE MUST ASK WHY DID GOLD AND PLATINUM SEEMINGLY JOIN THIS TREND? AFTER ALL THEY ARE SUPPOSED BE A STORE OF WEALTH !
BOTH WENT DOWN BY ABOUT 20% IN VALUE!
THE ANSWER IS ACTUALLY THEY DID NOT FALL THAT FAR AS THE
U S $ STRENGTHENED AGAINST THE EURO BY ABOUT 12% AS MOSTLY ALL RESOURCES ARE QUOTED IN U S DOLLARS. THAT STILL LEAVES A FALL OF 8% OVER THAT PERIOD AS ORDINARY PEOPLE PANICKED,NOT UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANICS AND SOLD PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES.THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT PHENOMINON HAS PLAYED OUT.AS LONG AS NOT ENOUGH IS DONE TO STABILISE EUROPE THIS SITUATION MIGHT CONTINUE
GOLD IS LIKELY TO START INCREASING AGAIN SOON AS TREASURIES YEILD IS LOW AND NOT THAT SAFE.PLATINUM MIGHT TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO INCREASE IN PRICEAS DURING A RECESSION THERE MIGHT NOT BE SUCH A GREAT DEMAND .
I must add that the South African Rand closely follows the Euro as these countries are our main trading partners.
Well we are in a MIGHTY BEAR MARKET and have been there for four years already.We can only reach this conclusion with hindsight.No wonder it has been so difficult to automatically make a profit!Taking the top 40 since November 2007,the capital loss on Anglo is -27% Amplats -42%,Billiton a measly 13% gain.Most of the other top 40 and second teir shares outside these showed a loss,dividends were cut or reduced to token amounts.Of course there have been mini runs in this time and some shares defied these circumstances such as Exxaro +80%,Kumba+100% SAB +56%. For a change to really occur countries will have to find answers to remaining really solvent and create growth opportunities.
1.1/Oct
WELL RESOURCE SHARES SEEMED TO TUMBLE IN THE LAST FORTNIGHT ALONG WITH THE DOW.SURELY ONE MUST ASK WHY DID GOLD AND PLATINUM SEEMINGLY JOIN THIS TREND? AFTER ALL THEY ARE SUPPOSED BE A STORE OF WEALTH !
BOTH WENT DOWN BY ABOUT 20% IN VALUE!
THE ANSWER IS ACTUALLY THEY DID NOT FALL THAT FAR AS THE
U S $ STRENGTHENED AGAINST THE EURO BY ABOUT 12% AS MOSTLY ALL RESOURCES ARE QUOTED IN U S DOLLARS. THAT STILL LEAVES A FALL OF 8% OVER THAT PERIOD AS ORDINARY PEOPLE PANICKED,NOT UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANICS AND SOLD PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES.THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT PHENOMINON HAS PLAYED OUT.AS LONG AS NOT ENOUGH IS DONE TO STABILISE EUROPE THIS SITUATION MIGHT CONTINUE
GOLD IS LIKELY TO START INCREASING AGAIN SOON AS TREASURIES YEILD IS LOW AND NOT THAT SAFE.PLATINUM MIGHT TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO INCREASE IN PRICEAS DURING A RECESSION THERE MIGHT NOT BE SUCH A GREAT DEMAND .
I must add that the South African Rand closely follows the Euro as these countries are our main trading partners.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
September Update
Nouriel Roubini on Thursday 1 September issued a statement that the United States won't be able to avoid a second recession,also that gold is in a bubble.
The markets that were wobbly then fell further on this observation .I agree with the first obsevation as their politicians are proving that they are spineless and are only interested in re-election.As Ben Bernanke said their reserve bank can do so much more if the Fed had support from their government.Their polititians must be prepared to "bite the bullet" and do whats best for their country by increasing taxes whilst cutting social services,except for the very poorest.This is one weakness of democracy.I hope our own government will also take steps in the same direction.Socialism in any form has proved a failure so taxes should be broad based such as sales taxes.
-----------------------------------------
Gold, Platinum
So gold might be in a bubble,according to
Roubini.So what!I have been a trader for a long time and gold and platinum is the only thing the ordinary person can buy and keep to offset the inflationary environment at the moment as governments try to get out of their messes by printing paper money with little or no backing!
This is not a bubble that will break any time soon as gold has only kept up with inflation over the last twenty years.A good sign that it is not overvalued is the physical Indian marraige season now in full swing as they scramble to buy as much gold jewellery as they can.In the past when they don't buy and rely on heirlooms then we know it is overpriced as has happened in the past.They are very canny gold traders.
-----------------------------------------------
Gold and Platinum prices are going up in tandem at the moment
===============
Do use labels to cluster subjects that you are interested on the left hand side side column at the bottom of this page
ALERT NO 1 and 2
SPRING COMMENT PAGE 3
SUMMER COMMENT PAGE 4 (NEW LIST)
SPRING COMMENT PAGE 3
SUMMER COMMENT PAGE 4 (NEW LIST)
ALSO
---------------------------------------------------------------
Naomi has updated her Stoch mid month blog
Naomi has updated her first Stochastic Analysis for September ,see links to other sites above for a direct link and her resource blog on her second page
AND SEE OUR LIFESTYLE LATEST BOOK OFFERINGS FOR A HEALTHY BETTER LIFE .LINK ON LINK PAGE
AND SEE OUR LIFESTYLE LATEST BOOK OFFERINGS FOR A HEALTHY BETTER LIFE .LINK ON LINK PAGE
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