All updates and new lists hopefully be published by the end of February 2016, as we are now closing till that time for a much needed break !
Best wishes for all readers of these posts and hoping we shall all be successful in the new year !
At the moment our local market is plunging as minerals are not needed by the world in sufficient quantities and local politicians are adding to our woes by unfortunate views, moves and statements!
To counter this action we have closed our positions on most local shares and have invested in the NEWUSD
ETF and other overseas shares on our local bourse that are overseas based such as REI. Do watch out for too high PE's and keep alerts and some stop losses in place.
Friday, December 11, 2015
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
CLIMATE CHANGE HYSTERIA
I fully realize it does not help to RAIL against the status quo!
How ever ,it is worth pointing that all and sundry are getting on the band wagon, to score at the expense of the poor tax payer ,including SNAKE OIL SALESMEN !
See small cap update above 2/12/2015
The poorest countries whom, by the way produce the least emissions, want quad-trillions to curb their emissions.
An easier way would be to use the Russian method ,which would be to place a boycott on some of their exports if they do not comply.
The major cause of the excess production of carbon-dioxcide is
of course over population farting and exhaling and not enough afforestation round the world ,especially in Chinese cities to mitigate these effects. Some extremists want to get rid of cattle and other forms of domestic and wild animals. Poor animals produce only one quarter of one of the major volcanoes emissions in a year!
Do read our previous post THE GREAT CARBON CREDIT SCAM on Friday 1 2015 below.
There is really no need to reduce human gas industrial activity to zero. All things in moderation is all that is needed.
The immediate aim is to reduce the temperature rise to less than 2%. REALLY ! WHY?
How ever ,it is worth pointing that all and sundry are getting on the band wagon, to score at the expense of the poor tax payer ,including SNAKE OIL SALESMEN !
See small cap update above 2/12/2015
The poorest countries whom, by the way produce the least emissions, want quad-trillions to curb their emissions.
An easier way would be to use the Russian method ,which would be to place a boycott on some of their exports if they do not comply.
The major cause of the excess production of carbon-dioxcide is
of course over population farting and exhaling and not enough afforestation round the world ,especially in Chinese cities to mitigate these effects. Some extremists want to get rid of cattle and other forms of domestic and wild animals. Poor animals produce only one quarter of one of the major volcanoes emissions in a year!
Do read our previous post THE GREAT CARBON CREDIT SCAM on Friday 1 2015 below.
There is really no need to reduce human gas industrial activity to zero. All things in moderation is all that is needed.
The immediate aim is to reduce the temperature rise to less than 2%. REALLY ! WHY?
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
MARKET CHURN and Updates
November Updates (Above)
Summer update and Spring updates 30/11/2015
NEW Under construction TOP 40 ,TEN LIKELY BEST SHARES FOR 2016
My specialist watch list 16/11/2015
Small cap & Altex updates 6 , 9 ,21 Nov
Spring update 3 Nov 2015
Post MARKET CHURN
The present market world-wide is going nowhere as prices have run ahead of the general recovery. Stresses and strains are being felt in all basic metal resource producers and with over production in these markets ,things are becoming slowly worse. There is also a re alignment of which metals will be needed in the future world as green house management is now taking centre stage in the developed world. South Africa ,with other developing countries is also feeling the strain leading to social unrest as fewer work opportunities now exist. Impossible demands are being placed on these governments and I am afraid we are in for a further rough time.
Summer update and Spring updates 30/11/2015
NEW Under construction TOP 40 ,TEN LIKELY BEST SHARES FOR 2016
My specialist watch list 16/11/2015
Small cap & Altex updates 6 , 9 ,21 Nov
Spring update 3 Nov 2015
Post MARKET CHURN
The present market world-wide is going nowhere as prices have run ahead of the general recovery. Stresses and strains are being felt in all basic metal resource producers and with over production in these markets ,things are becoming slowly worse. There is also a re alignment of which metals will be needed in the future world as green house management is now taking centre stage in the developed world. South Africa ,with other developing countries is also feeling the strain leading to social unrest as fewer work opportunities now exist. Impossible demands are being placed on these governments and I am afraid we are in for a further rough time.
Friday, October 2, 2015
October Updates and Notes
UPDATES SEE ABOVE INDEX
TOP 40 UPDATES SEE ABOVE 19/10/2015
SMALL CAP UPDATE 16/10/2015
MY SPECIALIST WATCH LIST UPDATE 12/10/2015
NOTE 2 A SURVEY CARRIED OUT IN EUROPE SHOWS THAT THE WORKERS THAT WORK THE LONGEST HOURS ARE NOT IN GERMANY OR FRANCE BUT IN GREECE. IT ALSO SHOWED THAT IN ALL THE MAIN COUNTRIES PRODUCTION IS FALTERING AND THERE NOT ENOUGH JOBS FOR THEIR CITIZENS,NOW EXCREBRIATED BY THE INFLUX OF ILLEGAL MIGRANTS!
NOTE 1 Some newspapers now are predicting that mineral production will never again produce any profits.Yes there has been a seven year decline in prices and many mines and mining houses are in trouble.
The main reason is that in the twenty years preceding the decline prices soared as there were shortages for the main part of most types of minerals ,resulting in ramping up supplies resulting in over supply. Even when the writing was on the wall ,copious amounts were produced, such as iron ore.
Many mines are now being moth-balled or going bankrupt. Minerals will always be needed for our growing world populations and the cycle will eventually be reversed again.
LET HOPE MORE SENSE WILL BE USED IN FUTURE SO AS NOT TO GET INTO THE BOOM , BUST CYCLE AGAIN!
TOP 40 UPDATES SEE ABOVE 19/10/2015
SMALL CAP UPDATE 16/10/2015
MY SPECIALIST WATCH LIST UPDATE 12/10/2015
NOTE 2 A SURVEY CARRIED OUT IN EUROPE SHOWS THAT THE WORKERS THAT WORK THE LONGEST HOURS ARE NOT IN GERMANY OR FRANCE BUT IN GREECE. IT ALSO SHOWED THAT IN ALL THE MAIN COUNTRIES PRODUCTION IS FALTERING AND THERE NOT ENOUGH JOBS FOR THEIR CITIZENS,NOW EXCREBRIATED BY THE INFLUX OF ILLEGAL MIGRANTS!
NOTE 1 Some newspapers now are predicting that mineral production will never again produce any profits.Yes there has been a seven year decline in prices and many mines and mining houses are in trouble.
The main reason is that in the twenty years preceding the decline prices soared as there were shortages for the main part of most types of minerals ,resulting in ramping up supplies resulting in over supply. Even when the writing was on the wall ,copious amounts were produced, such as iron ore.
Many mines are now being moth-balled or going bankrupt. Minerals will always be needed for our growing world populations and the cycle will eventually be reversed again.
LET HOPE MORE SENSE WILL BE USED IN FUTURE SO AS NOT TO GET INTO THE BOOM , BUST CYCLE AGAIN!
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
UPDATES, POST "Ecomonies of scale !"
UPDATES
See the Spring update above 28/9/2015
See Summer and Autumn updates 21/9/2015
See mineral news above 7/9/2015
See Small Caps AND Altex above 18/9/2015, 24/9/2015
POST
China is a centrally controlled
economy where the government interferes in every facet of life ,including tightly regulating economic activity.
Obviously always with the best intentions. To gain more traction and direction economically, they loosened controls on some aspects of commercial life and even allowed a stock exchange to come into existence.
Every country has a number of enterprising citizens who then listed on the exchange and found they could make money trading shares. News quickly spread and the masses stared to join in. Little did thee traders understand that an individual stock should increase in value only as it's dividend grows on a sound footing that it makes more profit and all types of shares started to move up sharply ,some into almost into the stratosphere ! There was also a building boom which further excrebiated the worsening situation. Bubbles formed and the inevitable crash followed. The warning signs were
there for the last three years, of course many excuses were made that thing were not that bad.
Different from other countries, the Chinese government continues to interfere by measures such as preventing money brought in from around the world so invested from leaving their country. They also curbed bear activity which would have prevented the worst sell offs and goes in for buying shares in untenable stocks to keep the price from falling.
All this upset the world stock markets as one felt China a couple of years ago looked as if it would lift the mantle of being the strongest economy in the world from the United States of America. This course of events looks now as if this will never come about.
Now to divert their citizens from their troubles they are unfortunately turning to military solutions by fermenting situations with neighbours.
See the Spring update above 28/9/2015
See Summer and Autumn updates 21/9/2015
See mineral news above 7/9/2015
See Small Caps AND Altex above 18/9/2015, 24/9/2015
POST
China is a centrally controlled
economy where the government interferes in every facet of life ,including tightly regulating economic activity.
Obviously always with the best intentions. To gain more traction and direction economically, they loosened controls on some aspects of commercial life and even allowed a stock exchange to come into existence.
Every country has a number of enterprising citizens who then listed on the exchange and found they could make money trading shares. News quickly spread and the masses stared to join in. Little did thee traders understand that an individual stock should increase in value only as it's dividend grows on a sound footing that it makes more profit and all types of shares started to move up sharply ,some into almost into the stratosphere ! There was also a building boom which further excrebiated the worsening situation. Bubbles formed and the inevitable crash followed. The warning signs were
there for the last three years, of course many excuses were made that thing were not that bad.
Different from other countries, the Chinese government continues to interfere by measures such as preventing money brought in from around the world so invested from leaving their country. They also curbed bear activity which would have prevented the worst sell offs and goes in for buying shares in untenable stocks to keep the price from falling.
All this upset the world stock markets as one felt China a couple of years ago looked as if it would lift the mantle of being the strongest economy in the world from the United States of America. This course of events looks now as if this will never come about.
Now to divert their citizens from their troubles they are unfortunately turning to military solutions by fermenting situations with neighbours.
Monday, August 3, 2015
POST , NOTES and UPDATES.
UPDATES
6. 31/8 /2015 Spring share and derivative update see above
5.All small cap updates in place by 27/8/2015 see above
4. SUMMER AND PRELIMINARY AUTUM UPDATES NOW IN PLACE SEE ABOVE
3. MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST 11/8/2015 CLICK ABOVE
2. Our Mineral and Mining News has been updated see above 6 and 11/8/2015
1. Winter update see index above 5/8/2015
POST METAL AND MINERAL PRICES CONTINUE TO PLUNGE,SUCH AS GOLD,OIL,PLATINUM GROUP METALS,COAL,CHROME AND IRON. 0NE MIGHT GET THE IMPRESSION THAT THESE PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER NEEDED IN THE WORLD!
NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH! HOW EVER THERE INEVITABLE CHANGES IN THE WAY SOME OF THESE ARE USED.
AMERICA HAS ENACTED LEGISLATION THAT PRETROLEUM DRIVEN VEHICLES MUST BE SLOWLY PHASED OUT FOR CLEANER VARIETIES OF VEHILCES
HERE FUEL CELLS AND ADVANCED BATTERY POWER IS LIKELY TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE!.
THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN OVER PRODUCTION AND HOARDING OF METAL AND MINERALS OF ALL KINDS. THIS IS NOW UNWINDING AND COUNTRIES ARE STARTING TO COME OUT OF THE RECESSION. THE WORLD HAD MANY UNREST PROBLEMS DUE TO THE RECESSION AND EVEN WARS CAUSED BY THE FRUSTATION OF NOT BEING ABLE TO PROVIDE A GOOD LIVING FOR THE WORLDS CITIZENS.
WE SEE A MORE STABLE PERIOD AHEAD AND A MORE FOCUSED PRODUCTION OF NEEDED RESOURCES.
NOTES USE THE LABELS IN THE SIDE-BAR OR UNDERNEATH POSTS TO CLUSTER SUBJECTS YOU ARE INTERESTED IN.
6. 31/8 /2015 Spring share and derivative update see above
5.All small cap updates in place by 27/8/2015 see above
4. SUMMER AND PRELIMINARY AUTUM UPDATES NOW IN PLACE SEE ABOVE
3. MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST 11/8/2015 CLICK ABOVE
2. Our Mineral and Mining News has been updated see above 6 and 11/8/2015
1. Winter update see index above 5/8/2015
POST METAL AND MINERAL PRICES CONTINUE TO PLUNGE,SUCH AS GOLD,OIL,PLATINUM GROUP METALS,COAL,CHROME AND IRON. 0NE MIGHT GET THE IMPRESSION THAT THESE PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER NEEDED IN THE WORLD!
NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH! HOW EVER THERE INEVITABLE CHANGES IN THE WAY SOME OF THESE ARE USED.
AMERICA HAS ENACTED LEGISLATION THAT PRETROLEUM DRIVEN VEHICLES MUST BE SLOWLY PHASED OUT FOR CLEANER VARIETIES OF VEHILCES
HERE FUEL CELLS AND ADVANCED BATTERY POWER IS LIKELY TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE!.
THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN OVER PRODUCTION AND HOARDING OF METAL AND MINERALS OF ALL KINDS. THIS IS NOW UNWINDING AND COUNTRIES ARE STARTING TO COME OUT OF THE RECESSION. THE WORLD HAD MANY UNREST PROBLEMS DUE TO THE RECESSION AND EVEN WARS CAUSED BY THE FRUSTATION OF NOT BEING ABLE TO PROVIDE A GOOD LIVING FOR THE WORLDS CITIZENS.
WE SEE A MORE STABLE PERIOD AHEAD AND A MORE FOCUSED PRODUCTION OF NEEDED RESOURCES.
NOTES USE THE LABELS IN THE SIDE-BAR OR UNDERNEATH POSTS TO CLUSTER SUBJECTS YOU ARE INTERESTED IN.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
NOTES and UPDATES
NOTES
1.We published this months post on 30 JUNE below as it was important
UPDATES SEE INDEX ABOVE.
5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE AND NEW SHORT SUMMER UPDATE SEE ABOVE
4.Spring Share and Derivative update and comment. 20/7/2015 see above
3.MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST 16/7/2015 SEE ABOVE
2. REAL ESTATE FACTS 6/7/2015 SEE ABOVE
1.SMALL CAP SHARES 14/7/2015 see above
1.We published this months post on 30 JUNE below as it was important
UPDATES SEE INDEX ABOVE.
5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE AND NEW SHORT SUMMER UPDATE SEE ABOVE
4.Spring Share and Derivative update and comment. 20/7/2015 see above
3.MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST 16/7/2015 SEE ABOVE
2. REAL ESTATE FACTS 6/7/2015 SEE ABOVE
1.SMALL CAP SHARES 14/7/2015 see above
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Greek Default
The 30 June 2015 was default day. It has been obvious that this day has been coming for a number of years. This has not been a purely Greek fault and the main drivers such as France and Germany have been responsible for much of the pain Greece will now have to bear. The Euro monetary unit is certainly not based on democracy as last year when Greece was first entering a greater discomfort zone and they proposed a democratic referendum to decide if they should break ranks with the Euro Unit ,draconian action was promised against the then government, who were then incidently pro Euro. So resentment was built up against the union. Obviously the main drivers of the Euro monetary unit wanted give their private citizens time to unwind their exposure to Greece.
Now towards the end of the saga they seemed to impose more impossible conditions upon Greece, knowing full well that Greece could not meet them so as to shift the blame fully to them and away from the Union. Greece gave in on most points ,but then always more was required.
To say that Greece only represents about 4% of the Euro trade and will have only minimal effect upon the union in a break up is also not true. Do remember the citizens and their government have withdrawing Euros from those been injected into their banks which might now might be billions.
So when Greece returns to their original currency, which say they devalue by 40% then they will still have the Euros which could threaten the stability of the European Union. These moves of the major countries in Europe are not lost on other Mediterranean countries I am sure.
Another worrying aspect of this debacle is that Greece has always been a staunch member of Nato. No doubt Russia would help Greece and those ties would weaken!
Now towards the end of the saga they seemed to impose more impossible conditions upon Greece, knowing full well that Greece could not meet them so as to shift the blame fully to them and away from the Union. Greece gave in on most points ,but then always more was required.
To say that Greece only represents about 4% of the Euro trade and will have only minimal effect upon the union in a break up is also not true. Do remember the citizens and their government have withdrawing Euros from those been injected into their banks which might now might be billions.
So when Greece returns to their original currency, which say they devalue by 40% then they will still have the Euros which could threaten the stability of the European Union. These moves of the major countries in Europe are not lost on other Mediterranean countries I am sure.
Another worrying aspect of this debacle is that Greece has always been a staunch member of Nato. No doubt Russia would help Greece and those ties would weaken!
Monday, June 1, 2015
THE WORLD IN TURMOIL
Sure there is always some conflict going on some where, but usually these can be ignored as they do not affect us directly.
How ever when the largest powers start actively increasing their military hardware ,then we have to take notice.
Rest of this post is beneath updates.
3/6/2015 Real Estate update see index above.
8/6/2015 My Specialist List Update.
10,15/6/2015 smaller cap shares transfer to update above.
The former communist countries namely RUSSIA and CHINA have slowly being moving to more open societies in the last decade and they have generally thrived. Now how ever as the capital systems start to struggle due to the world wide recession over the last five years, these countries find they can not meet the aspirations of their restless citizens, as they demand even more freedoms.
Thus Russia has become embroiled in a war with a former part of their Socialist Republics namely Ukraine. As the western countries generally support the latter ,they have whipped up patriotism and suppressing freedoms in Russia.
China on the other hand have started on a massive naval build up, supposedly to protect their coastal integrity ,by claiming islands that belong to other countries , well beyond their borders as their own .How ever this could eventually lead to them taking a greater stake in the mainland, land which is part of Russia now. Russia might regret it's stance to the West, a fact which is not lost to their leadership I am sure!
It is time to settle the Ukraine crises in a manner that is fair to all.
NATO is upping their vigilance after some air intrusions by Russia and the US has promised to help Far East nations with their land integrity.
We South Africans might have signed a treaty with the BRIC countries ,but we had better stay neutral as 70% of our exports go to the West.
All this might have a good effect upon mining strategic metals and minerals as both sides will want to buildup reserves as quickly as possible.
How ever when the largest powers start actively increasing their military hardware ,then we have to take notice.
Rest of this post is beneath updates.
3/6/2015 Real Estate update see index above.
8/6/2015 My Specialist List Update.
10,15/6/2015 smaller cap shares transfer to update above.
The former communist countries namely RUSSIA and CHINA have slowly being moving to more open societies in the last decade and they have generally thrived. Now how ever as the capital systems start to struggle due to the world wide recession over the last five years, these countries find they can not meet the aspirations of their restless citizens, as they demand even more freedoms.
Thus Russia has become embroiled in a war with a former part of their Socialist Republics namely Ukraine. As the western countries generally support the latter ,they have whipped up patriotism and suppressing freedoms in Russia.
China on the other hand have started on a massive naval build up, supposedly to protect their coastal integrity ,by claiming islands that belong to other countries , well beyond their borders as their own .How ever this could eventually lead to them taking a greater stake in the mainland, land which is part of Russia now. Russia might regret it's stance to the West, a fact which is not lost to their leadership I am sure!
It is time to settle the Ukraine crises in a manner that is fair to all.
NATO is upping their vigilance after some air intrusions by Russia and the US has promised to help Far East nations with their land integrity.
We South Africans might have signed a treaty with the BRIC countries ,but we had better stay neutral as 70% of our exports go to the West.
All this might have a good effect upon mining strategic metals and minerals as both sides will want to buildup reserves as quickly as possible.
Friday, May 1, 2015
The Great Carbon Credit TAX SCAM !
Yes our government along with others in the world can not wait to get their hands on more taxes to waste on meaningless projects and themselves!
Do remember that with out carbon dioxide no life would be possible on earth!
Sure we don't want to live in a smoky environment or where chemicals put artificially high amounts of poison in the air or drinking water. The problem should be attacked in another way, say by tax credit incentives for better management of immediate environments.
Luckily the last volcanic eruption in Iceland in four days has negated every human effort in the last five years to lower CO2 in the atmosphere.
Please teach your children that plants need CO2 to synthesize into oxygen for us to breathe.
As for global warming, the earth now seems to be in a cooling cycle so now the term "Climate Change" is being used.
ANOTHER NATURAL PHENOMINA!
1. Labels at the bottom of posts and in the side-bar can be used to cluster subjects on the same subject
2. Its a good idea to bookmark this page
3.The latest update is always at the top of the page
Do remember that with out carbon dioxide no life would be possible on earth!
Sure we don't want to live in a smoky environment or where chemicals put artificially high amounts of poison in the air or drinking water. The problem should be attacked in another way, say by tax credit incentives for better management of immediate environments.
Luckily the last volcanic eruption in Iceland in four days has negated every human effort in the last five years to lower CO2 in the atmosphere.
Please teach your children that plants need CO2 to synthesize into oxygen for us to breathe.
As for global warming, the earth now seems to be in a cooling cycle so now the term "Climate Change" is being used.
ANOTHER NATURAL PHENOMINA!
1. Labels at the bottom of posts and in the side-bar can be used to cluster subjects on the same subject
2. Its a good idea to bookmark this page
3.The latest update is always at the top of the page
Friday, April 3, 2015
Commodities Prices
Commodities including precious metals, oil ,iron and manganese prices will continue to stay low as long as the producers are reluctant to reduce production as the only way they can stay in business! Take Saudi Arabia the worlds largest exporter of oil refuses to produce less although the oil price has halved. Same goes for iron ore miners as they feel they can profit at lower prices so putting smaller rivals out of production.
LATEST UPDATE PAGES ARE POSTED AT THE TOP OF THE INDEX ABOVE
FINAL AUTUMN UPDATE 27 Apr
20 Apr My Specialist Revised list
7,11,16 Apr Small Caps
11 Apr Spring Derivative and Share List
11 Apr Winter Derivative and Share List.
14,22 Apr METAL AND MINERAL LIST
LATEST UPDATE PAGES ARE POSTED AT THE TOP OF THE INDEX ABOVE
FINAL AUTUMN UPDATE 27 Apr
20 Apr My Specialist Revised list
7,11,16 Apr Small Caps
11 Apr Spring Derivative and Share List
11 Apr Winter Derivative and Share List.
14,22 Apr METAL AND MINERAL LIST
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Keeping Our Breathable World Safe
We should thank JAPAN for the innovative way they are introducing ecological changes to the world. A world leader indeed! Using Fuel Cell technology for the next Olympic games is a great step forward .
They are show-casing the Hydrogen economy, which is something the rest of the world will have to quickly consider if we want to save our planet as cities become more polluted all the time. Electricity is to be produced solely by fuel cells at the games and all government Honda and Toyota cars will also be powered by fuel cells, during the games.
This is where we South Africans enter the scene as we produce over 70% of the world newly mined platinum, as it is platinum fuel cell that is being used.
Do read for more information about platinum Our Mineral and News http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com
Sunday, February 1, 2015
THE WORLD DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT
This state of affairs has been well documented and commented upon. I therefore wish only then to point out some of the effects upon our Southern African region.
Rest of this post below notes
1.Latest update at bottom of index above.
2,Use the left hand side bar to cluster articles on various subjects.
3 Read Our Mining and Mineral News for latest on those subjects see above for address. See the NEW page in the side-bar on Mining houses and Holding companies.
At this stage we have to believe that the bond buying programme ,now called their "quantitative easing programme " despite all its inefficientcies in the Euro zone will help reverse the deflation which is now gripping this region. After all the American QE has definitely left the economy there in a better mode.
As far as we go on our REITS on the JSE that concentrate on Europe are flying as they are now buying European property portfolios in their depressed markets and will hopefully provide good growth as they restore their confidence.
On the negative side is our export of all kinds minerals . There is really not a market now for our base and industrial metals with falling prices as well as our precious metals, and only rare metals prices are holding up. As mines become unprofitable they forced to either close or cut back drastically on staff ,leading to social unrest which might come back to bite the Western world sooner than they think. Another unfavourable outcome is that Eastern Socialist countries are moving into Africa mining whole sale and buying up these assets at fire sale prices!
Rest of this post below notes
1.Latest update at bottom of index above.
2,Use the left hand side bar to cluster articles on various subjects.
3 Read Our Mining and Mineral News for latest on those subjects see above for address. See the NEW page in the side-bar on Mining houses and Holding companies.
At this stage we have to believe that the bond buying programme ,now called their "quantitative easing programme " despite all its inefficientcies in the Euro zone will help reverse the deflation which is now gripping this region. After all the American QE has definitely left the economy there in a better mode.
As far as we go on our REITS on the JSE that concentrate on Europe are flying as they are now buying European property portfolios in their depressed markets and will hopefully provide good growth as they restore their confidence.
On the negative side is our export of all kinds minerals . There is really not a market now for our base and industrial metals with falling prices as well as our precious metals, and only rare metals prices are holding up. As mines become unprofitable they forced to either close or cut back drastically on staff ,leading to social unrest which might come back to bite the Western world sooner than they think. Another unfavourable outcome is that Eastern Socialist countries are moving into Africa mining whole sale and buying up these assets at fire sale prices!
Thursday, January 1, 2015
BACK TO THE FUTURE ?
The world has had a great reprieve, with literally the collapse of the oil price per barrel of crude, near the end of 2014. The main question now is ,is this a temporary state or will the oil price rebound?
I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells, wind and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
All this is giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015 http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com
I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells, wind and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
All this is giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015 http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com
Monday, December 1, 2014
A FAIRLY GOOD YEAR
To date the our Alsi and Topi index together with world indexes have been at all time highs at least five times this year. Sure the share prices have run ahead of the actual recovery on the ground, but good quality shares will generally grow in to those prices in the coming years. Resource prices have taken a hammering during the past three years generally as the whole scene changes due to demand after the recession ended. There has been a general decline in demand as various countries try to stimulate their economies to offset deflation, how ever the oil price decline has been a Godsend to help stimulate the world economies. It must be noted that this event has also had some destabilizing effect upon prices of resources as traders try to discern how this will effect the various products. I shall report upon the effect on the various minerals next year.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Currency Surprises
Well Quantitative Easing (QE) has finally ended in the United States and there was a quick nervous retreat in the market ,how ever the turn around in the States continues with business improving visibly. Which ever way we look at it there was not enough money as before floating around in the world to kick-start the rest of the world economies.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2. See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014
The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.
This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
Japan's population have also recently chosen a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing !". This has had an electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2. See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014
The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.
This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
Japan's population have also recently chosen a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing !". This has had an electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Too soon for Recessionary Talk !
Of late there has been a great deal of nervousness around the market, with the last recession remembered only too well, as it was only last year that the recovery began in earnest.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of the Continents.
Shares had reached all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5% will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of the Continents.
Shares had reached all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5% will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.
Monday, September 1, 2014
THE WORLD IS ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE
The Ukranian crises could well get out of control. Time is running out .It is every ones interest to find a political solution. It has already had a economic effect on Russia its satellites and the
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014 SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014 SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist above as well as parts A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above
5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.
Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014 SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014 SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist above as well as parts A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above
5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.
Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
SHARES that should succeed over the next couple of years.
COMMENT FOR AUGUST 2014
Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital and income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS
NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER NEW ITEMS IN THE SIDE-BAR.
NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them long term.
Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital and income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS
NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER NEW ITEMS IN THE SIDE-BAR.
NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them long term.
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
Platinum Group Metals now and in the future
The longest strike in South African history, namely five months has come to an end. There were no winners as the workers will have to work up to five years to make up lost pay under the no work no pay principle and the mines were brought to their knees as there was no spike in the platinum and other related metal prices.
The newest entry is always found at the bottom of the index above. The rest of this article is beneath Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 22/7/2014
It seems as if there is going to be an over supply of COAL in the not too distant future world wide. At the moment ,there is a shortage of coal at our electricity company ,namely ESCOM perhaps not the time to rush into buying coal mining shares!
ALERT 10/7/2014
Gold has made a comeback in the last couple of days, much against a the consensus that it will continue to wane. Nervousness about the future of stock markets as they have out performed the actual recovery as well as slowing growth in Europe's main driver Germany as well as major trouble in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and over production in China is unsettling the markets, also the firing of indiscriminate rockets into Israel from Gaza that can only be stopped by a ground invasion.
NOTE 5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE NOW IN PLACE July 28
Note 4.Spring share and derivative update is now in place 21/7/2014 see also preliminary SUMMER LIST 23/7
NOTE 3 My specialist watch list parts A,B,C have been updated see above 14/7/2014
NOTE 2 Small caps summer list has been updated see above 25/7/2014
Note 1.See the relaunched Resources News on page 3 for my reasons for choosing AMPLATS to recover best from the platinum strike above on 3/7/2014
Despite the return to work and hefty increases for entry level miners (20% plus),the mines will not be able to carry as usual on if there is not a significant increase in metal prices soon ,an unlikely event ( Read the recent posts on the strikes as well to fully understand why)
A fact not often written about is that hungry striking miners on some mines opened old ventilation shafts and old entrances to tunnels and stripped the mines of miles of electrical copper cables and iron pipes to sell illegally on the black market to gain money to pay for food to survive the strikes as well. All will have to be replaced now at high prices before mining can safely commence again. Contractors are now being payed off which cause a ripple effect on the economy and as miners retire etc they are not being replaced.
A great deal has been written about mechanizing the mines. This is not always feasible for many of the mines as there narrow ore bodies very deep down. The most likely result is that most of the older mines will close down permanently.
Amplats and the other miners will also probably sell off the deeper mines and go for the opencast option ,as that is the only way they will be able to mechanise.
There is unlikely to be a strike on this scale in the future, which has almost forced our country back into a recession again. Since we pride ourselves on being democratic, the minister of mines is now mulling over legislation that will make it illegal to strike unless a strike ballot is held and sixty percent of the workers approve it. There after further supervised strike ballots must be held say every four weeks. Security will also be beefed up during such an action so as to allow non striking unions members to work with out the danger of being killed. This present strike was called by the union boss and then he used strong arm tactics to enforce it.
SEE ALSO MY MOST POPULAR POST OF 1 MARCH 2012
MENTIONED IN THE SIDE BAR NAMELY The stripping of South African Resource Assets part 1.As this foretold of the events of the present period!
The newest entry is always found at the bottom of the index above. The rest of this article is beneath Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 22/7/2014
It seems as if there is going to be an over supply of COAL in the not too distant future world wide. At the moment ,there is a shortage of coal at our electricity company ,namely ESCOM perhaps not the time to rush into buying coal mining shares!
ALERT 10/7/2014
Gold has made a comeback in the last couple of days, much against a the consensus that it will continue to wane. Nervousness about the future of stock markets as they have out performed the actual recovery as well as slowing growth in Europe's main driver Germany as well as major trouble in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and over production in China is unsettling the markets, also the firing of indiscriminate rockets into Israel from Gaza that can only be stopped by a ground invasion.
NOTE 5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE NOW IN PLACE July 28
Note 4.Spring share and derivative update is now in place 21/7/2014 see also preliminary SUMMER LIST 23/7
NOTE 3 My specialist watch list parts A,B,C have been updated see above 14/7/2014
NOTE 2 Small caps summer list has been updated see above 25/7/2014
Note 1.See the relaunched Resources News on page 3 for my reasons for choosing AMPLATS to recover best from the platinum strike above on 3/7/2014
Despite the return to work and hefty increases for entry level miners (20% plus),the mines will not be able to carry as usual on if there is not a significant increase in metal prices soon ,an unlikely event ( Read the recent posts on the strikes as well to fully understand why)
A fact not often written about is that hungry striking miners on some mines opened old ventilation shafts and old entrances to tunnels and stripped the mines of miles of electrical copper cables and iron pipes to sell illegally on the black market to gain money to pay for food to survive the strikes as well. All will have to be replaced now at high prices before mining can safely commence again. Contractors are now being payed off which cause a ripple effect on the economy and as miners retire etc they are not being replaced.
A great deal has been written about mechanizing the mines. This is not always feasible for many of the mines as there narrow ore bodies very deep down. The most likely result is that most of the older mines will close down permanently.
Amplats and the other miners will also probably sell off the deeper mines and go for the opencast option ,as that is the only way they will be able to mechanise.
There is unlikely to be a strike on this scale in the future, which has almost forced our country back into a recession again. Since we pride ourselves on being democratic, the minister of mines is now mulling over legislation that will make it illegal to strike unless a strike ballot is held and sixty percent of the workers approve it. There after further supervised strike ballots must be held say every four weeks. Security will also be beefed up during such an action so as to allow non striking unions members to work with out the danger of being killed. This present strike was called by the union boss and then he used strong arm tactics to enforce it.
SEE ALSO MY MOST POPULAR POST OF 1 MARCH 2012
MENTIONED IN THE SIDE BAR NAMELY The stripping of South African Resource Assets part 1.As this foretold of the events of the present period!
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