Keeping Our Breathable World Safe

 We should thank JAPAN for the  innovative way  they are introducing ecological changes to the world. A world leader indeed! Using Fuel Cell  technology for the next Olympic games is a great step forward .
They are show-casing the Hydrogen economy, which  is something the rest of the world will have to quickly consider if we want to save our planet as cities become more polluted all the time. Electricity is to be produced solely by fuel cells at the games and all government Honda and Toyota cars will also be powered by fuel cells, during the games.
This is where we South Africans enter the scene as we produce over  70% of the world newly mined platinum, as it is platinum fuel cell that is being used.

Do read for more information about platinum   Our Mineral and News        http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

THE WORLD DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT

   This state of affairs has been well documented  and commented upon. I therefore wish only then to point out some of the effects upon our  Southern African region.
Rest  of   this post below notes
1.Latest update at bottom of index above.
2,Use the left hand side bar to cluster articles on various subjects.
3 Read Our Mining and Mineral News for latest on those subjects see above for address.  See the NEW page in the side-bar on Mining houses and Holding companies.
   At this stage we have to believe that the bond buying programme ,now called their "quantitative easing  programme " despite all its inefficientcies in the Euro zone will help reverse the deflation which is now gripping this region. After all the American QE has definitely left the economy there in a better mode. 
   As far as we go on our REITS on the JSE that concentrate on Europe are flying as they are now buying European property portfolios in their depressed markets and will hopefully provide good growth as they restore their confidence.
   On the negative side is our export of all kinds minerals . There is really not a market now for our base and industrial metals with falling prices as well as our precious metals, and only rare metals prices are holding up. As mines become unprofitable they forced to either close or cut back drastically on staff ,leading to social unrest which might come back to bite the Western world sooner than they think. Another unfavourable outcome is that Eastern Socialist countries are moving into Africa mining whole sale and buying up these assets at fire sale prices!

BACK TO THE FUTURE ?

   The world has had a great reprieve, with literally the collapse of the oil price  per barrel of crude, near the end of 2014.  The main question now is ,is this a temporary state or will the oil price rebound?
  I ascribe to the theory that it will stay low for a longer period that might be at least a number of years, before a slow recovery takes place.
  Forty years ago the Middle-East supplied almost 85% of the worlds supply cheaply around less than 22 US   Dollars per barrel. What a shock when the Arabs decided to use oil as a weapon against the Western Worlds support of Israel. They cut the supply off  completely resulting the price rising fast and rationing being imposed in many countries. The price shot up to well above 100 US Dollars per barrel . Since then the world has striven to lessen its reliance on this source for power generation.
Slowly but surely other sources of petroleum supply have been developed such as tar sands in North America ,also fracking, shale oil and deep sea drilling in places other than the Middle East.
   Added to this mix the world has become more aware of pollution effecting the quality of life from fossil fuels. Now solar power, nuclear  power and still in its infancy but quickly gaining ground are fuel cells,  wind  and sea movements are becoming competing sources of energy.
  All this is  giving a new spurt to the world and as a lower petroleum price is going to have a wonderful knock on effect to the price of transport and constant increases of price.
  I really can not see the stock market having a major crash during the next couple of years. Of course markets some times become over heated and then sudden retreats in price of around 20% or slightly more can occur, but generally the markets recover from these blips as can be seen on a graph of main markets over the last hundred years.
SEE NAOMI'S COMMENT ON 5.1.2015    http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

A FAIRLY GOOD YEAR

To date the our Alsi and Topi index together with world indexes have been at all time highs at least five times this year. Sure the share prices have run ahead of the actual recovery on the ground, but good quality shares will generally grow in to those prices in the coming years. Resource prices have taken a hammering during the past three years generally as the whole scene changes due to demand after the recession ended. There has been a general decline in demand as various countries try to stimulate their economies to offset deflation, how ever the oil price decline has been a Godsend to help stimulate the world economies. It must be noted that this event has also had some destabilizing effect upon prices of resources as traders try to discern how this will effect the various products. I shall report upon the effect on the various minerals next year.
I hope you all did well this year as there were some spectacular share peformances. I hope our  personal opinions on the pages on this web-site will help you in the year ahead.
 Do read the posts written in the past year for more information as well.

Currency Surprises

   Well  Quantitative Easing (QE) has finally ended in the United States and there was a quick nervous retreat in the market ,how ever the turn around in the States continues with business improving visibly. Which ever way we look at it there was not enough money as before floating around in the world to kick-start the rest of the world economies.
See the rest of this post below the following notes
5.See the summer update above 24/11/2014
4.See first Autumn update above 17/11/2014
3. The newest update is always at the bottom of the index above.
2.  See our small cap list we chose for 2014 ,we are happy that it has performed so well to date! Also 12/11 update
1.See parts A and B of my specialist watchlists which been updated above 10/11/2014 
   The Ukraine crises had crimped Europe's economies as the trade war with Russia intensifies. Even the two main drivers of the Euro zone, namely France  and Germany were starting to
feel the head-winds with exports falling and work becoming scarcer.
    The Far East had its own problems with the Chinese boom stagnating and Japan trying to break out of a three decade deflationary cycle. In China  there have been signs that they are starting to stimulate their property sector as this in the past led to a boom that then extended to other sectors of the market.       
   This then has a knock on effect on all other economies that supply China with resources especially and then other goods benefit as well.
 Japan's population have also recently chosen  a more radical government that that is prepared to take on a new course of action. As soon as they entered office they increased the money supply. This helped awhile then the status quo began to reappear. Now they have taken the gamble to create  money ,increasing by another two thirds, their own "Quantitative Easing  !". This has had an  electric effect upon the world as they have stated that will pump some of this money into surrounding economies. This all happened on the 30 of October. This has come just at the right time to fill the gap left by the ending of the QE gap. Our South African stock market shot up by over 1000 points  which is very unusual as this is more than double the usual daily moves. The rest of the world also improved.
   The Eurozone is also heading in the direction of easing credit after seeing the effect it had in America and the rest of the world is following this example.
   Our South African Rand has began to stabilize again as the IMF seems pleased at the moves our minister s taking to improve our currency.

Too soon for Recessionary Talk !

Of late there has been a great deal of nervousness around the market, with the last recession remembered only too well, as it was only last year that the recovery began in earnest.
Now it must be noted that the stock as always in the past ran well ahead of the actual recovery which is still advancing at different paces in each of   the Continents.
Shares  had reached  all time highs with PE's that told the tale that were heavily overbought ! This resulted in side way motions and they were easily upset by any and all events such as the still simmering Ukraine crises, the bombing of ISIL, the thought of how China might react to moves for democracy etc.
The American market is still seen as a safe haven in these troubling times which is leading to their currency strengthening further.
The ending of quantertative  easing this month has turned into a non-event. The thought of interest rates increasing in the United States has caused nervousness in the market as share prices are still ahead of the recovery,at the moment there more people in jobs than there was before the recession.
No need to panic as the recovery is likely to continue for a number of years yet as interest rates will climb slowly and only in the United States when they go above 5.5%  will the Federal Reserve start to warn the share traders that the  market is "overly exuberant "as
Greenspan put it last time before there was a pull back and a recession started.
In South Africa's case when interest reaches the teens then a retreat in the market is usually imminent, of course our deficits are causing a delay in our recovery. Our government must to take further steps to see this does not get out of hand, as then this will force interest rates upwards.

THE WORLD IS ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE

The Ukranian crises could well get out of control. Time is running out .It is every ones interest to find a political solution.  It has already had a economic effect on Russia its satellites and the
West. We here in the Southern Hemisphere  will also suffer economiclly as there will be little demand for our resources.
Rest of post published below notes and alerts.
NOTE 5 OUR BET SMALL CAP SHARES 24/9/2014  SEE ABOBE LIST
NOTE 4 PROPERTY INVESTMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 15/9/2014  SEE ABOVE
Note 3 See especially part C of My Specialist Watchlist  above as well as parts  A & B updated 8/9/2014
Note 2. Summer small cap list has been updated above 3,17/9/2014 AND THE WINTER LIST 10/9/2014
Note 1.The newest update is always posted at the bottom of the index above

5/9/2014 ALERT There is about as much gold left in the Witwatersrand Basin as has been mined since 1886 when the first discovery was made, namely about 1.9 million ounces. How ever it can not be mined by the traditional methods used in the past as due to the depth there too many accidents , difficult  and expensive methods that make this not profitable as well.
New as well as experimental methods are being sought. One such method is ULTRA HIGH STRENGTH BACKFILL used by ANG(Anglo Gold Ashanti) to be able to mine areas  too dangerous to mine in the past such as the natural stone pillars that had to be left to hold up the roof. These pillars contain a large quantity of minable gold.

Funnily I felt Sevastopol belonged to Russia,but did not agree on the rough method they used to reclaim it. How ever they now might have over played their hand as the majority of Ukraine would like to come out of  the recession that came about after the end of the break up of the Soviet Union. Ukraine would now like  to hold a democratic election to decide its future ,but the incursion of thousands of Russian troops with the most sophisticated weaponry on what ever pretext is making this impossible.

SHARES that should succeed over the next couple of years.

 COMMENT FOR AUGUST 2014  
 Now should be the time to invest in safer resource shares that would provide capital  and  income growth as well. As resource shares can be very volatile a diversified selection of shares in major companies would take advantage of their expertise to produce the required results. Let us not forget that world populations are increasing and will require many products to survive and hopefully enjoy a better standard of life in future.
SEE REST OF THIS POST IS BELOW NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE 2 SEE THE REWORKED WINTER SMALL CAP LIST ABOVE AND OTHER  NEW ITEMS  IN THE SIDE-BAR.

NOTE 1 THE NEWEST UPDATE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST ABOVE
26/8/2014 ALERT The Platinum group user Johnson Matthey
has reported that the Rhodium price which has been lagging behind the platinum has now passed platinum's price , more than doubling from  around $700 to $1400 per ounce. As it is the  metal that that only smaller quantities are produced at a time there is a shortage now developing. South Africa produces 80% of the worlds supply.
  
The dominant largest companies now are BILITON,RIO  TINTO,ANGLO ,BARRACK  MINING and GLENCORE which has absorbed Xstrata. At one time Anglo was at the top of the list, but with the poor performance of platinum group metals and buying copper mines in South America at the highest prices just before the recession they have slipped to 4th position.
   Now whilst Biliton and Rio Tinto have done every thing right and now are in the strongest positions doing very well ,both Anglo and Glencore are smaller now and in a better position to challenge again for the top spots.
Anglo is selling off loss making shafts in many commodities or even where they making profits ill fitting parts such as Tarmac to companies that are already in that sphere and will run it better. This is and will also in future generate a great deal of cash to enter areas such industrial metals and minerals which all the world now needs.
Glencore on the other hand has bought up many smaller producers of different minerals and metals and has also entered the farming business, which I feel needs specialist knowledge so this does not really sit well with me. How ever I feel both Anglo and Glencore are in a good more maneuverable position to do well over the years ahead.
I have started buying small quantities of both shares and will continue buying at lows after dividends have been paid. I intend holding them  long term.

Platinum Group Metals now and in the future

    The longest strike in South African history, namely five months has come to an end. There were no winners as the workers will have to work up to five years to make up lost  pay under the no work no pay principle and the mines were brought to their knees as there was no spike in the platinum and other related metal prices.
The newest entry is always found at the bottom of the index above. The rest of this article is beneath Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 22/7/2014
It seems as if there is going to be an over supply of COAL in the not too distant future world wide. At the moment ,there is a shortage of coal at our electricity company ,namely ESCOM  perhaps not the time to rush into buying coal mining shares!


 ALERT 10/7/2014
Gold has made a comeback in the last couple of days, much against a the consensus that it will continue to wane. Nervousness about the future of stock markets as they have  out performed the actual recovery as well as slowing growth in Europe's main driver Germany as well as major trouble in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and over production in China is unsettling the markets, also the firing of indiscriminate rockets into Israel from Gaza that can only be stopped by a ground invasion.
NOTE 5. FINAL WINTER UPDATE NOW IN PLACE July 28
Note 4.Spring share and derivative update is now in place 21/7/2014  see also preliminary SUMMER LIST 23/7
NOTE 3 My specialist watch list parts A,B,C    have been updated see above 14/7/2014
NOTE 2 Small caps summer list has been updated see above 25/7/2014
Note 1.See the relaunched  Resources News on page 3 for my reasons for choosing AMPLATS to recover best from the platinum strike above on 3/7/2014

  Despite the return to work and hefty increases for entry level miners (20% plus),the mines will not be able to carry as usual on if there is not a significant increase in metal prices soon ,an unlikely event ( Read the recent posts on the strikes as well to fully understand why)
   A fact not often written about is that hungry striking miners on some mines opened old ventilation shafts and old entrances to tunnels and stripped the mines of miles of electrical copper cables and iron pipes to sell illegally on the black market to gain money to pay for food to survive the strikes as well. All will have to be replaced now at high prices before mining can safely commence again. Contractors are now being payed off which cause a ripple effect on the economy and as miners retire etc they are not being replaced.
A great deal has been written about mechanizing the mines. This is not always feasible for many of the mines as there narrow ore bodies very deep down. The most likely result is that most of the older mines will close down permanently.
    Amplats and the other miners will also probably sell off the deeper mines and go for the opencast option ,as that is the only way they will be able to mechanise.
    There is unlikely to be a strike on this scale in the future, which has almost forced our country back into a recession again. Since we pride ourselves on being democratic, the minister of mines is now mulling over legislation that will make it illegal to strike unless a strike ballot is held and sixty percent of the workers approve it. There after further supervised strike ballots must be held say every four weeks. Security will also be beefed up during such an action so as to allow non striking unions members to work with out the danger of being killed. This present strike was called by the union boss and then he used strong arm tactics to enforce it.
SEE ALSO MY MOST POPULAR POST OF 1 MARCH  2012
MENTIONED IN THE SIDE BAR NAMELY The stripping of South African Resource Assets part 1.As this foretold of the events of the present period!

IN A REFLECTIVE MOOD

 Time to step back from the market and take stock. There has been a good run over the last couple of months. Most markets are at their highest points, or just below.

The latest entry on the index above is always at the bottom
 of the list. Rest of the post above can be found below ALERTS AND NOTES
5.The winter list has been updated above June 23/6/2014
4.See the SPRING UPDATE ABOVE f June 17
3.Resources Post has been updated above 12,14,25,30/6/2014.SEE OUR NEW PAGE 2 OUR CHOICES 
2.MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS A.B AND C HAVE UPDATED SEE ABOVE 9/6/2014
1.TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS HAS BEEN UPDATED 4/6/2014

11/6/2014 ALERT       At long last after five months of the platinum strike, the prices of the platinum group metals are beginning to start to rise. The place to be might be to buy the Exchange Traded Funds as the mines are still proving to be unstable.
The mines are considering undisclosed , at this stage steps to return some of their holdings to production. The government s also proposing to build houses at their expense relieving the mines of this task. It must be added that the mines already pay quite generous amounts to all the miners to obtain better accommodation. These steps have not appeased the hard core union which is also tied to an extreme left political party. Ordinary starving miners are asking for protection from the extremists to return to work.

 NOW some traders would say a bubble is forming in certain sectors. This is really not true as the majority of shares are increasing on good management which in turn leads to increased profits. Of course shares also run ahead on expectations and this is where some dangers lie.
 Shares are likely to pull back  around 8% or slightly more in the months ahead ,then continue their progress, although they are fully priced now the world is generally still coming out of the recession. We in South Africa have  suffered a general set-back with the long miners strike, how ever there is now hope, since the ANC had a resounding victory in the election that they will act firmly, some thing they did not do in the past fearing a backlash in the voting. There is unfortunately a great deal of savagery taking place with workers returning to worked being chopped up literally into pieces. On a SMS campaign 60% have voted for return to work.

FUTURE POWER SOURCES

There are many different types of power sources that are environmentally friendly being developed. There are  almost as many already working but requiring capital as they are hellishly expensive or not quite developed for the purpose they were envisioned for.


See rest of article below Alerts and Notes 
ALERT 17/5
We have made no entries into the resource blog for the last two months for the reason we   honestly believe there is no value in this section at the moment .Even when the strike ends the platinum sector will not be in recovery mode as prices of the PGMs is far too low. Demand worldwide now is slowing for most mineral producers as well


NOTE 5 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST PART A IS UPDATED21/5/2016

NOTE 4 Please note that the latest updates are always placed at the bottom of the index above

Note no 3 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PARTS  A,B and C WHICH SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH OTHER HAVE NOW BEEN UPDATED 10/5/2014

NOTE no 2 Go to the NEW WINTER SMALL CAP LIST
above 3,5 May

Note no 1 Do click on the labels in the side-bar and at the bottom of each post to combine like minded posts for further research

One of the most promising is the fuel cell technology, which is already used in outer space satellites, stationary engines , is in the nearing finished stage in automobiles and heavy transport .
A great deal of money was spent on fuel-cells by the PLATINUM companies as well as leading governments world wide, Amplats has taken the lead in South Africa in conjunction with Ballard to produce a home generators on a large scale. This non-grid technology will be able to supply quality electricity to primary to 3,4 million people. A world first.
Amplats is also developing fuel cells to power the electricity needs of the mines as Escom struggles to provide enough electricity from conventional means.
 The most exciting development is platinum proton exchange membranes. Concrete steps to fund the roll-out of hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure in advanced countries is underway.

 

RESOURCES IN CHANGING TIMES

0ver the last couple of decades resources have moved in  different directions which we could hardly comprehend  in the past.
See Alerts and rest of post below notes
NOTE 8 The final Autumn update above 29/4/2014
NOTE 7 The preliminary spring list has been published 24/4/2014
NOTE 6 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PART A and B have been updated See above 22/4/2014
NOTE 5 SMALL CAPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 16/4/2014
NOTE The winter list has been updated  14/3/2014
NOTE 4 Real Estate facts and figure are updated above 7/4/2014
NOTE 3 Small caps blog has been updated 3/4/2014
NOTE 2 The newest update appears at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 1 It would be a good idea to BOOKMARK this page
ALERT 21/4
Amplats and Implats have increased their offer of wages to  10% per annum.At the present offer no mine can really afford it as the price they receive for platinum is below the present working cost. How ever most surface supplies have been used up and the mines are bargaining on an increase of prices going forward.
Meanwhile the president of the maverick union AMCU is as cute as a cartload of monkeys as the saying goes as he now asks the government for funds to rescue the union members on their three month strike with out pay.At the same time it must be remembered there thousands of workers willing to take their jobs with out work,so far the mines have resisted the call to use Scab labour.

ALERT 5/4.
MASILELA who is the head of the PIC(Public Investment Corporation) ,has shown a complete lack of economic sense, suggesting  the platinum miners should form a cartel with Russia as these two countries produce 80%  of the platinum group metals in the world, to determine the prices. One has only to read this post and others that I have written over the past months to see such an idea would would worsen the mines positions further. Obviously he is frustrated by the ten week strike that continues as an election is coming up in May.

As an example platinum which was the most desired metal  and needed in all kinds of industrial as well  as jewellery now is not that much in demand any more as now platinum is recovered from scrap in a big way has seen its price almost halve over that period.

During the same period the United States of America has freed its self from relying on imported fuels with its fracking  program as well as its tar sands and deep wells in the Gulf of Mexico.
NEW MINING METHODS are now urgently being sought here in South Africa as unfortunately politics have been wound in with labour relations to paralyse the mines .We in this country have up to eight times more labourers to run similar mines than would be needed in any other country of the world. The government resisted efforts of the mines to reduce staff. Now how ever their veiw is changing as the drop in taxes from the mines is  forcing the fiscus to take A DIFFERENT VEIW.   

WORLD WIDE RESOURCE OVER PRODUCTION

Resource production jumped into top gear when the governments world-wide artificially stimulated a recovery. Well enough a recovery is underway but at a sedate pace.

See rest of article under NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE  9 See updates for MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS 2012 to2014 above on 23/3

NOTE  8 AUTUMN TOP 40 LIST HAS BEEN UPDATED 17/3/2014 see above.

NOTE 7 See Transfer to Small Cap shares above 12/3.2014
NOTE 6 GOOGLE    PAWSITIVELY ADORABLE PETS
NOTE 5 SEE WINTER TOP 40 LIST UPDATE 10/3/2014

NOTE 4  FOR SMALL MEDIUM CAP SHARES LATEST UPDATES SEE on 5/2/2014
http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NOTE 3.REMEMBER THE LATEST UPDATES OF PAGES IS ALWAYS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX ABOVE.

NOTE 2.USE THE LABELS IN THE SIDE BAR TO CLUSTER SUBJECTS YOU ARE INTERESTED IN

NOTE 1. IT,S A GOOD IDEA TO BOOKMARK THIS SITE IN YOUR FAVOURITES BAR ABOVE

ALERT 14/3  The ANC ruling party is  panicing  and introducing all kinds of socialist legislation to appease the masses. Pity as this will frighten away investors. No doubt there will be challenges by mines and farmers in the constitutional court after the elections, which will then reverse most of this legislation. The high workless figure  makes the ruling parties job more difficult.

This has led to bottlenecks and severe over supply as the recovery amongst the real populace have not  felt the recovery yet and are just for the most part surviving with no extra cash to create actual demand.

China has a tremendous over supply of iron ore at the moment with supplies at 870 metric tonnes and demand running at 700 tonnes per annum, and the situation is getting worse with users offering lower prices . Spot prices are declining by the week with last week the price at $120 dollars, now according to Reuters less than $110 are being offered.
Copper is in the same boat with demand weak.

In South Africa the platinum strike came at an opportune time, which can be seen as although it has been  going on for just over a month, the price has not shot up markedly. Now surface surplus supplies are coming to an end the price might move up at a faster pace. On the other hand costs of production have also increased so the mines will struggle to return to profitability soon.

Emerging Market Sell off.

Lets face it ALL markets ,  have run ahead of the slow recoveries world wide

 (See ARTCLE,ALERTS  below  NOTES.)
NOTE 10 SEE MY SPECIALIST  UPDATE FOR 2014
NOTE 9 SEE TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS  LIST 26/2/20
NOTE 8 SEE FEB UPDATE AUTUMN LIST
NOTE 7 SEE TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NAOMI'S UPDATE
NOTE 6. ADDITIONAL UPDATE MY SPECIALIST SHARES 15/2/2014
NOTE  5  TRANFER TO SMALL CAPS PAGE 1 UPDATED 14/2/2014
NOTE  4 REAL ESTATE UPDATE 12/2/2014
NOTE 3  SEE MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST UPDATE ABOVE 10/2/2014
NOTE 2 TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NEWS  6/FEB ABOVE TO SEE NAOMI'S NEW SMALL/MID CAP COMMENT
NOTE 1 The latest update is always  put at the bottom of the index above.
ALERT `14/2/2014
The State president mentioning the crippling  platinum mine strike in his national address, now gives the parties 
a chance at resolving their differences in a face saving way for the new labor union which promised their members that there would be no negotiation and all their demands would be met!


In the turbulent markets we have at the moment ,investors are seeking safe havens. Gold that has been out of fashion is beginning to shine again and although it fell initially as the emerging markets came off sharply. The question now is ,should take a chance and buy gold mines or rather the metal exchange traded funds. More discerning traders are looking to mines that can produce greater profits than just holding the metal.
Well South Africa has settled her gold strikes and there is unlikely to be another major strike for the next two years when this agreement ends.
A GOLD MINE overlooked by overseas buyers is SIBANYE (SGL).THIS RICHEST GOLD PRODUCER IN THE WORLD HAS COME OUT WITH A WONDERFUL UPDATE.ALL OTHER GOLD PRODUCERS WOULD GIVE THEIR "EYE-TEETH" FOR THEIR ASSETS.A CASH COW INDEED!

The New Year

We are likely to power on in the NEW YEAR world wide. Asia, Europe and America are still heir slowly  continuing to take milder steps to stimulate their economies.

THE MARKET STILL ADVANCES

24/12 ALERT The US CONGRESS and SENATE have found common ground,which is likely to result in a 2 year buget deal and avoid a shutdown,like the one that resulted in partial shutdown of the US government recently.Indeed a wonderful Xmas present for stock markets worldwide,which is giving an extra boost to this "feel good" rally.

18/12 ALERT 9.30 PM South African Time.
The American taper has started,catching the market by surprise.It has just been announced by Ben Bernanke.Suprisingly the DOW responded by increasing in price!The bond buying program also known as quantitive easing is being reduced from 85 billion to 75 billion Dollars.

The market still advances on the "Feel Good" basis,which has carried the market to  new heights in many bourses world wide.As traders thin as the year end nears,it is difficult to say at this stage if some of these prices will hold early in the new year.

12/12 ALERT The market has gone down with a thump this morning after trading sideways for a number of days.Reasons could be that part of the futures close out was done earlier than usual,yesterday, with Xmas in mind.Nowprices are being re-set to what traders think the market will be on the 14 plus of March.

NOTE 4. It's all about quality of life and finding a happy balance between work and friends and Family  -Philip Green

NOTE 3.NOW FOR SOMETHING DIFFERENT SEE
http://touristssouthafrica.blogspot.com

2.AUTUMN UPDATE NOW IN PLACE ABOVE DEC 9

1.See WINTER LIST UPDATE ABOVE DEC 5

This has been an exceptonal year on most indexes with around 50% plus  advances.We can expect a holding pattern or slightly down wards as  the market is now over bought.
This is not to say that further advances will not occur next year and we fully expect the main indecis to advance by at least another third.Do remember the recession lasted from 2008 till early last year,so markets generally are not over bought over the longer term as they came off very low bases.Heres wishing all traders a marvellous trading year AHEAD.Thanks for the support as with out your patronage these columns would be written.

MONETARY SAFE HAVENS

ITS A GREAT PITY THAT THE FIGHT ON BALANCING THE USA BUDGET ENDED IN DEADLOCK.BOTH THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS WERE RESPONSIBLE.WE DO NOT  THINK THEY REALISED THE DAMAGE THEY DID.THE MAJORITY VOTED FOR THE DEMOCRATS SO LET THEM HAVE THEIR MEDICAL SCHEME.THE SO CALLED "TEA PARTY" WERE ALSO VOTED IN ,MANY IN FORMER DEMOCRATIC SEATS BY THINKING VOTERS WORRIED BY THE EVER INCREASING DEBT AS THE DEFICIT DRIVES THEIR GOVERNMENT FURTHER OUT OF KILTER.ONE CANNOT RUN A COUNTRY ON BORROWED MONEY FOR EVER.
SEE REST OF THIS ARTICLE BELOW  ALERTS AND NOTES
 28 NOVEMBER REVEIW.
With the year end closing rapidly upon us and all the holidays ahead  the market usually wanes some what.Since trading numbers are lighter than usual,are also erratic we do the final page updates in January 2014,for the pages in the index above,which then gives a more accurate figure.
That said it has been a marvellous year for stocks and shares.Now they are slightly overbought and the trend is likely to be a modest retreat.
We shall deal with the Tapering issue in the new year.We really do not fear it to the extent mentioned by doom sayers.The Main post will published in December as well.


21 ALERT.
Gold demand has fallen about 20% in the third quater of this year,possibly caused by India banning the import of the metal to preserve their currency.How ever now an increase in imports is taking place in countries bordering on India,leading to the suspicion that illegal trade into India may be increasing.A smaller decrease has taken placee in the Western World ,but a slower increase is taking place  in the East

13 ALERT Australa's punitive super tax on resources led to   the cou being less attractive to investors.It also did not produce the revenues that were expected and stopped development of new mines.It led to the demise of the labour government then.A further carbon tax only further distressed the country.Now in electioneering Abbott has said he will repeal both taxes to restore Australias competitiveness and already the fruits of this policy are beginning to flow through.This should be a lesson to us, here in South Africa. You have been warned!

7 ALERT   Mark Cutifani CEO of Anglo American at a Chamber of Mines conference has pointed out eight out of ten South Africans are some way dependent on mining for income.The fastest way to eliminate poverty is to work hand in hand with major miners on the NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN BY GOVERNMENT.

2 ALERT    GLENCOREXSTRATA will obtain a secondary listing on the main board of the JSE on the 13 November.Their primary listing is on the LSE.They have large interests in copper and coal amongst other metals.This move should  shake things up locally.

NOTE 1 The latest page updates are always at the bottom of the index above.
.
IT MIGHT BE SEEN AS PRESUMPTUOUS FOR ME TO TELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON HOW TO RUN THEIR COUNTRY,BUT I COULD NOT HELP TO NOTICE THAT EVEN IN LAST WEEK  BOTH TURKEY AND A RUSSIAN STATE BOLSTERED THEIR GOLD HOLDINGS.HOW EVER YOU LOOK AT IT CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN SHAKEN.EVEN CHINA WHO HAS HELPED AMERICA WITH VERY LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY WAS WORRIED.
The question is what do countries worldwide do to bolster their  reserve  currencies ?
1.They have not entirely lost faith in the US Dollar,but obviously they feel they should have some alternatives as well,to meet all eventualities.
2.Europe followed a different route during the recession,although they are not out of the woods many countries were impressed by their belt tightening and refusial to print paper notes with out backing.Therefore countries are opting to hold quantities of Euros in their reserves as well.
3.GOLD is seen as a reserve currency,with out borders and is as popular as ever.When Cyprus defaulted the Union wanted to take their whole gold holding as colatteral for a further loan,but was strongly resisted by them.
4.The United States still keeps large reserves of gold in their vaults in Philedelphia and at Fort Knox  as a back up.One could also count their and many other countries "strategic" reserves of oil and other minerals as reserves as well.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CRY THAT THE PRICE IS MANIPULATED DOWNWARDS.How ever all countries are likely to prefer a stable,not volatile price and probably  WILL NOT let the price fall very low as this would damage the worth of their reserves.

EMERGING MARKETS showing Value.

Emerging markets are beginning to show value again for the first time after the long recession thats lasted from 2007.Up to now investors have opted for safety of their industrialised countries.
Rest of this post above, below the ALERTS and Notes.
30,  OCTOBER REVEIW
Well the month that was has passed.The stock markets have reached all time highs in both the USA and here in South Africa.The market always run ahead of actual conditions after recessions.That does not mean the party is over,but the upturn will probably last for a number of years.The shock of the American government closing did not spoil the party,but has made countries world wide nervous and they are starting to look for alternative structures so to avoid a similar threat in future.

ALERT 25/10
BILITON(BIL) is in a  better position to exploit the stabilising steel prices in China and the rest of Asia as they are virtually on their "door step",than any of the other large mining groups as the distance between them and their market is the nearest.That is why they are expanding their mining works in Australia.

ALERT 18/10
There is new interest  OIL FROM SHALE leading to intensive  geological investegations in the KAROO BASIN .This is very exciting news for us as ,this will stabilise our prices eventually.SASOL is at the forefront of these investigations.They will gain good experience from their venture in America where they are busy with extracting oil there from shale rock.

10/10ALERT        BOTSWANA is busy establishing a large DIAMOND cutting and polishing industry.De Beers is aiding them in this project at the behest of their government.True they have the largest  number of unmined diamond diferous kimberlite pipes in the world.The trouble is that they are off the beaten track for buyers who frequent the longer established polishing centres of Antwerp and Tel Aviv. 

4/10 ALERT      Mick Davis is at it again!
The former director of ESKOM and founder and CEO of Xstrata which grew into a gaint resources company that has been taken over by  Glencore has not been at a loose end for long.HE is busy with a new company which has all the makings of a new aquisitive gaint.Called X2 RESOURCES,RUMOUR HAS IT THAT IT HAS ALREADY ATTRACTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND IS ABOUT TO LAUNCH OVERSEAS.

2/10ALERT  A shortage of platinum group metals are starting to occur world wide. This is not reflected in prices yet as producers are afraid to increase prices as demand might weaken on higher prices,but when industries start to increase orders then prices are likely to rapidly increase.

NOTE 4 See on OUR RESOURCES NEWS latest comment by  Barry on LARGE CAP SHARES COMMENT AND SMALL CAP TIPS 23 OCT 
ips
NOTE 3 See  theTOP 40 WATCHLIST latest update above on 9/10/2013

NOTE 2 See MY SPECIALST WATCHLIST update,in the above index Oct 7 for the newest addition to the list.

NOTE 1 The latest update is always at the bottom of the of the index above,also use the labels below posts and in the side-bar to group articles on the same subject.


EMERGING MARKETS HAVE LAGGED THE FIRST WORLD MARKETS for what the traders considered more stable markets.How ever as emerging markets fell further than the first world markets and shares that survived that fall are beginning to flourish.They are attracting funds from those in the know.Still it is better to buy shares on the more stable markets in this category as the JSE of South Africa which has had the market the longest in Africa and other bourses that have been there the longest on other continents and have an impeccable reputations for rules and regulation of the market. 
Metals and minerals are also starting to take off again as shortages are starting to develop as production was severely cut during the recession.The world is recovering slowly,but the pace will eventually start to speed up ,causing prices to rise rapidly.Do remember it takes time to increase production and its not as simple as turning on a tap!

NEW MINING METHODS, INNOVATION A GAME CHANGE.

  For over a centuary starting  in the eighteen eighties South Africa was the largest Gold producer in the world.Since platinum has been taken into general use we are still the largest  producers of this metal.We are amongst the leading produces of a whole raft of metals and minerals currently.How ever now costs and increasing difficulty of extracting these metals and minerals is beginning to weigh on our returns.
See rest of this article beneath Alerts and Notes.

20/9ALERT

DE BEERS which is owned  by Anglo American is doing very well this year.This is now mainly been driven by China which is expected to drive the market for the next five years as Chinese brides now prefer diamonds to gold.All other diamond mines should also benefit from this trend.

   11/9 ALERT  

   The world now seems a safer place ,if the Russian plan  to hand the Syrian weapons to the United Nations goes ahead.Anyway the pedal has been removed from the war stance and markets are recovering again.Chinese trade figures have also turned positive this week.Our local strikes all now seem to be going to be resolved in a more amicable manner with increases below 10%.Workers now understand the gravity of our local situation.Our weaker Rand will lead to an increase in the price received for our local products and minerals.

   3/9 ALERT  
OFFICIAL  STRIKE ACTION has started in earnest this morning at mostly gold related mines.As the mines are on a tight -rope alread running at near losses they can ill afford these actions.There can be no increases in wages with out increases in productivity levels.These levels have been declining for several years now.
Note 4 We have changed the format of the TOP 40 index to reflect more contemporary movements see above.
Note  3  The newest updates are always put at the bottom of the index list above.
Note 2 Use labels below articles  and in the side-bar to group articles on similar subjects.
Note 1.Do read in the side-bar  interestng items and ads., especially chosen to enhance your knowledge.

  Mechanisation was tried about ten years ago by LONMIN in it platinum mines.It was the first company to do so.It turned out to be a complete failure.Our Gold mines are very deep and by conventional methods the gold is nearly worked out.It has been partly political pressure that has kept the mines on a large manual footing,employing hundreds of thousands of workers.
All that is about to change and the realisation by all the parties that things have to change is slowly dawning on all.
  A completely new method of mining GOLD
is coming to the fore.Instead of bringing rock carrying the gold to the surface to crush etc.It has been found that with a new method just the GOLD REEF can be removed with chemical and other methods and the rest of the granite left in place.In the past sections of the mines had to be left in place ,if I remember correctly every 27 yards of a square of 27 yards were left to keep the roof up and in between pillars of wood would be put in place for further reinforcement.NOW A METHOD OF BACK FILL is to be used and all the Gold areas not yet mined can be utilised.
  GRAHAM ,Ceo of Harmony has pointed that as much gold as has been removed from the mines in the last hundred years remains to be removed.Most of it at reasonable shallower levels.
  THE MAIN GAME CHANGER WILL BE ROBOTICS NOT JUST MECHANISATION.THE ADVANTAGE OF THIS WILL BE LESS DANGEROUS WORKING CONDITIONS AVOIDING PRESSURE BURSTS THAT ARE LIFE THREATENING AS THE MINES BECOME DEEPER.ALL THIS WILL OF COURSE TAKE TIME,BUT WILL BE LESS LABOUR INTENSIVE AND ALLOW THE MINES TO SURVIVE,SO ATTRACTING CAPITAL TO EXTEND THE LIFE OF MINES.

RESOURCES THE WORLD NEEDS

Central and Southern Africa have many strategic minerals in abundance and are amongst world leaders in producing these.
South Africa produces over 72% of the Platinum used in the world
and 83% of the Rhodium for Catalytic converters and other industrial uses.
See rest of this article beneath Alerts and Notes
28/8  ALERT
Tensions are rising world-wide this morning as the Syrian crises is likely to spill over into
more bloodshed with the world powers taking sides.In South Africa we have serious trade union wars in a fight about turf escalating now.The more moderate NUM union has also upped its demands to compete with the more radical unions.Most of the demands now are completely unnatainable,which could bring our country to its knees.The mining of minerals is likely to decrease to a trickle and many mines would forced to close permanently.

9/8 ALERT
SOUTH AFRICAS gold and platinum production continues to decline,year on year.Figures are issued by the governments stastistical department.Bad news for labour and balance of payments.Gold the once dominant metal is down YOY on June by 14%.
Platinum Group Metals is down by 18%.Not good news for these labour intensive industries also bad news for our GDP.
Coal is now our number one export ,bringing the most money.Iron ore also brings more than Gold

3/8 ALERT
We are not the only country with a foreign exchange deficit it seems! India also is having problems at the moment.They have banned the import of physical gold to help balance their books.Soon they will only allow the import of gold that will exit in jewellery.As gold pays such a big part in their culture,this move has sent the price of their own gold sky high!
                   -------------------------------------------
NOTE 6 See Naomi's recource updates above in the index
Note 5 See international property update on 8/8/2013 above,"PART A"
Note 4. Whats happening to Naomi?....bnlifestyle10.  blogspot .com
Note 3 . See the NEW resource pages on large caps by Barry in the index above.
Note 2. Use the LABELS in the side-bar and at the bottom of articles to group subjects you might want to research.
Note 1 . Remember the newest updates are at the bottom of the index above.


According to the world bank and South African chamber of Mines last year over half a million people were still employed in the mining industry.We are also the fifth largest producer of gold ,also produce 47%of the worlds chrome used in super alloys,also a large exporter of coal and diamonds.
Our immediate neighbours sharing borders with us name Namibia is a large exporter of Uranium alsoDiamonds,Botswana diamonds and Mozambique coal and one of the few producers outside China of Rare earth minerals. In Central Africa there is the DM Congo that supplies rare earths such as tantalum,cobalt and also diamonds.