IN A REFLECTIVE MOOD

 Time to step back from the market and take stock. There has been a good run over the last couple of months. Most markets are at their highest points, or just below.

The latest entry on the index above is always at the bottom
 of the list. Rest of the post above can be found below ALERTS AND NOTES
5.The winter list has been updated above June 23/6/2014
4.See the SPRING UPDATE ABOVE f June 17
3.Resources Post has been updated above 12,14,25,30/6/2014.SEE OUR NEW PAGE 2 OUR CHOICES 
2.MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS A.B AND C HAVE UPDATED SEE ABOVE 9/6/2014
1.TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS HAS BEEN UPDATED 4/6/2014

11/6/2014 ALERT       At long last after five months of the platinum strike, the prices of the platinum group metals are beginning to start to rise. The place to be might be to buy the Exchange Traded Funds as the mines are still proving to be unstable.
The mines are considering undisclosed , at this stage steps to return some of their holdings to production. The government s also proposing to build houses at their expense relieving the mines of this task. It must be added that the mines already pay quite generous amounts to all the miners to obtain better accommodation. These steps have not appeased the hard core union which is also tied to an extreme left political party. Ordinary starving miners are asking for protection from the extremists to return to work.

 NOW some traders would say a bubble is forming in certain sectors. This is really not true as the majority of shares are increasing on good management which in turn leads to increased profits. Of course shares also run ahead on expectations and this is where some dangers lie.
 Shares are likely to pull back  around 8% or slightly more in the months ahead ,then continue their progress, although they are fully priced now the world is generally still coming out of the recession. We in South Africa have  suffered a general set-back with the long miners strike, how ever there is now hope, since the ANC had a resounding victory in the election that they will act firmly, some thing they did not do in the past fearing a backlash in the voting. There is unfortunately a great deal of savagery taking place with workers returning to worked being chopped up literally into pieces. On a SMS campaign 60% have voted for return to work.

FUTURE POWER SOURCES

There are many different types of power sources that are environmentally friendly being developed. There are  almost as many already working but requiring capital as they are hellishly expensive or not quite developed for the purpose they were envisioned for.


See rest of article below Alerts and Notes 
ALERT 17/5
We have made no entries into the resource blog for the last two months for the reason we   honestly believe there is no value in this section at the moment .Even when the strike ends the platinum sector will not be in recovery mode as prices of the PGMs is far too low. Demand worldwide now is slowing for most mineral producers as well


NOTE 5 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST PART A IS UPDATED21/5/2016

NOTE 4 Please note that the latest updates are always placed at the bottom of the index above

Note no 3 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PARTS  A,B and C WHICH SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH OTHER HAVE NOW BEEN UPDATED 10/5/2014

NOTE no 2 Go to the NEW WINTER SMALL CAP LIST
above 3,5 May

Note no 1 Do click on the labels in the side-bar and at the bottom of each post to combine like minded posts for further research

One of the most promising is the fuel cell technology, which is already used in outer space satellites, stationary engines , is in the nearing finished stage in automobiles and heavy transport .
A great deal of money was spent on fuel-cells by the PLATINUM companies as well as leading governments world wide, Amplats has taken the lead in South Africa in conjunction with Ballard to produce a home generators on a large scale. This non-grid technology will be able to supply quality electricity to primary to 3,4 million people. A world first.
Amplats is also developing fuel cells to power the electricity needs of the mines as Escom struggles to provide enough electricity from conventional means.
 The most exciting development is platinum proton exchange membranes. Concrete steps to fund the roll-out of hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure in advanced countries is underway.

 

RESOURCES IN CHANGING TIMES

0ver the last couple of decades resources have moved in  different directions which we could hardly comprehend  in the past.
See Alerts and rest of post below notes
NOTE 8 The final Autumn update above 29/4/2014
NOTE 7 The preliminary spring list has been published 24/4/2014
NOTE 6 MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS PART A and B have been updated See above 22/4/2014
NOTE 5 SMALL CAPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED 16/4/2014
NOTE The winter list has been updated  14/3/2014
NOTE 4 Real Estate facts and figure are updated above 7/4/2014
NOTE 3 Small caps blog has been updated 3/4/2014
NOTE 2 The newest update appears at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 1 It would be a good idea to BOOKMARK this page
ALERT 21/4
Amplats and Implats have increased their offer of wages to  10% per annum.At the present offer no mine can really afford it as the price they receive for platinum is below the present working cost. How ever most surface supplies have been used up and the mines are bargaining on an increase of prices going forward.
Meanwhile the president of the maverick union AMCU is as cute as a cartload of monkeys as the saying goes as he now asks the government for funds to rescue the union members on their three month strike with out pay.At the same time it must be remembered there thousands of workers willing to take their jobs with out work,so far the mines have resisted the call to use Scab labour.

ALERT 5/4.
MASILELA who is the head of the PIC(Public Investment Corporation) ,has shown a complete lack of economic sense, suggesting  the platinum miners should form a cartel with Russia as these two countries produce 80%  of the platinum group metals in the world, to determine the prices. One has only to read this post and others that I have written over the past months to see such an idea would would worsen the mines positions further. Obviously he is frustrated by the ten week strike that continues as an election is coming up in May.

As an example platinum which was the most desired metal  and needed in all kinds of industrial as well  as jewellery now is not that much in demand any more as now platinum is recovered from scrap in a big way has seen its price almost halve over that period.

During the same period the United States of America has freed its self from relying on imported fuels with its fracking  program as well as its tar sands and deep wells in the Gulf of Mexico.
NEW MINING METHODS are now urgently being sought here in South Africa as unfortunately politics have been wound in with labour relations to paralyse the mines .We in this country have up to eight times more labourers to run similar mines than would be needed in any other country of the world. The government resisted efforts of the mines to reduce staff. Now how ever their veiw is changing as the drop in taxes from the mines is  forcing the fiscus to take A DIFFERENT VEIW.   

WORLD WIDE RESOURCE OVER PRODUCTION

Resource production jumped into top gear when the governments world-wide artificially stimulated a recovery. Well enough a recovery is underway but at a sedate pace.

See rest of article under NOTES AND ALERTS

NOTE  9 See updates for MY SPECIALIST WATCHLISTS 2012 to2014 above on 23/3

NOTE  8 AUTUMN TOP 40 LIST HAS BEEN UPDATED 17/3/2014 see above.

NOTE 7 See Transfer to Small Cap shares above 12/3.2014
NOTE 6 GOOGLE    PAWSITIVELY ADORABLE PETS
NOTE 5 SEE WINTER TOP 40 LIST UPDATE 10/3/2014

NOTE 4  FOR SMALL MEDIUM CAP SHARES LATEST UPDATES SEE on 5/2/2014
http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NOTE 3.REMEMBER THE LATEST UPDATES OF PAGES IS ALWAYS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX ABOVE.

NOTE 2.USE THE LABELS IN THE SIDE BAR TO CLUSTER SUBJECTS YOU ARE INTERESTED IN

NOTE 1. IT,S A GOOD IDEA TO BOOKMARK THIS SITE IN YOUR FAVOURITES BAR ABOVE

ALERT 14/3  The ANC ruling party is  panicing  and introducing all kinds of socialist legislation to appease the masses. Pity as this will frighten away investors. No doubt there will be challenges by mines and farmers in the constitutional court after the elections, which will then reverse most of this legislation. The high workless figure  makes the ruling parties job more difficult.

This has led to bottlenecks and severe over supply as the recovery amongst the real populace have not  felt the recovery yet and are just for the most part surviving with no extra cash to create actual demand.

China has a tremendous over supply of iron ore at the moment with supplies at 870 metric tonnes and demand running at 700 tonnes per annum, and the situation is getting worse with users offering lower prices . Spot prices are declining by the week with last week the price at $120 dollars, now according to Reuters less than $110 are being offered.
Copper is in the same boat with demand weak.

In South Africa the platinum strike came at an opportune time, which can be seen as although it has been  going on for just over a month, the price has not shot up markedly. Now surface surplus supplies are coming to an end the price might move up at a faster pace. On the other hand costs of production have also increased so the mines will struggle to return to profitability soon.

Emerging Market Sell off.

Lets face it ALL markets ,  have run ahead of the slow recoveries world wide

 (See ARTCLE,ALERTS  below  NOTES.)
NOTE 10 SEE MY SPECIALIST  UPDATE FOR 2014
NOTE 9 SEE TRANSFER TO SMALL CAPS  LIST 26/2/20
NOTE 8 SEE FEB UPDATE AUTUMN LIST
NOTE 7 SEE TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NAOMI'S UPDATE
NOTE 6. ADDITIONAL UPDATE MY SPECIALIST SHARES 15/2/2014
NOTE  5  TRANFER TO SMALL CAPS PAGE 1 UPDATED 14/2/2014
NOTE  4 REAL ESTATE UPDATE 12/2/2014
NOTE 3  SEE MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST UPDATE ABOVE 10/2/2014
NOTE 2 TRANSFER TO RESOURCES NEWS  6/FEB ABOVE TO SEE NAOMI'S NEW SMALL/MID CAP COMMENT
NOTE 1 The latest update is always  put at the bottom of the index above.
ALERT `14/2/2014
The State president mentioning the crippling  platinum mine strike in his national address, now gives the parties 
a chance at resolving their differences in a face saving way for the new labor union which promised their members that there would be no negotiation and all their demands would be met!


In the turbulent markets we have at the moment ,investors are seeking safe havens. Gold that has been out of fashion is beginning to shine again and although it fell initially as the emerging markets came off sharply. The question now is ,should take a chance and buy gold mines or rather the metal exchange traded funds. More discerning traders are looking to mines that can produce greater profits than just holding the metal.
Well South Africa has settled her gold strikes and there is unlikely to be another major strike for the next two years when this agreement ends.
A GOLD MINE overlooked by overseas buyers is SIBANYE (SGL).THIS RICHEST GOLD PRODUCER IN THE WORLD HAS COME OUT WITH A WONDERFUL UPDATE.ALL OTHER GOLD PRODUCERS WOULD GIVE THEIR "EYE-TEETH" FOR THEIR ASSETS.A CASH COW INDEED!

The New Year

We are likely to power on in the NEW YEAR world wide. Asia, Europe and America are still heir slowly  continuing to take milder steps to stimulate their economies.

THE MARKET STILL ADVANCES

24/12 ALERT The US CONGRESS and SENATE have found common ground,which is likely to result in a 2 year buget deal and avoid a shutdown,like the one that resulted in partial shutdown of the US government recently.Indeed a wonderful Xmas present for stock markets worldwide,which is giving an extra boost to this "feel good" rally.

18/12 ALERT 9.30 PM South African Time.
The American taper has started,catching the market by surprise.It has just been announced by Ben Bernanke.Suprisingly the DOW responded by increasing in price!The bond buying program also known as quantitive easing is being reduced from 85 billion to 75 billion Dollars.

The market still advances on the "Feel Good" basis,which has carried the market to  new heights in many bourses world wide.As traders thin as the year end nears,it is difficult to say at this stage if some of these prices will hold early in the new year.

12/12 ALERT The market has gone down with a thump this morning after trading sideways for a number of days.Reasons could be that part of the futures close out was done earlier than usual,yesterday, with Xmas in mind.Nowprices are being re-set to what traders think the market will be on the 14 plus of March.

NOTE 4. It's all about quality of life and finding a happy balance between work and friends and Family  -Philip Green

NOTE 3.NOW FOR SOMETHING DIFFERENT SEE
http://touristssouthafrica.blogspot.com

2.AUTUMN UPDATE NOW IN PLACE ABOVE DEC 9

1.See WINTER LIST UPDATE ABOVE DEC 5

This has been an exceptonal year on most indexes with around 50% plus  advances.We can expect a holding pattern or slightly down wards as  the market is now over bought.
This is not to say that further advances will not occur next year and we fully expect the main indecis to advance by at least another third.Do remember the recession lasted from 2008 till early last year,so markets generally are not over bought over the longer term as they came off very low bases.Heres wishing all traders a marvellous trading year AHEAD.Thanks for the support as with out your patronage these columns would be written.

MONETARY SAFE HAVENS

ITS A GREAT PITY THAT THE FIGHT ON BALANCING THE USA BUDGET ENDED IN DEADLOCK.BOTH THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS WERE RESPONSIBLE.WE DO NOT  THINK THEY REALISED THE DAMAGE THEY DID.THE MAJORITY VOTED FOR THE DEMOCRATS SO LET THEM HAVE THEIR MEDICAL SCHEME.THE SO CALLED "TEA PARTY" WERE ALSO VOTED IN ,MANY IN FORMER DEMOCRATIC SEATS BY THINKING VOTERS WORRIED BY THE EVER INCREASING DEBT AS THE DEFICIT DRIVES THEIR GOVERNMENT FURTHER OUT OF KILTER.ONE CANNOT RUN A COUNTRY ON BORROWED MONEY FOR EVER.
SEE REST OF THIS ARTICLE BELOW  ALERTS AND NOTES
 28 NOVEMBER REVEIW.
With the year end closing rapidly upon us and all the holidays ahead  the market usually wanes some what.Since trading numbers are lighter than usual,are also erratic we do the final page updates in January 2014,for the pages in the index above,which then gives a more accurate figure.
That said it has been a marvellous year for stocks and shares.Now they are slightly overbought and the trend is likely to be a modest retreat.
We shall deal with the Tapering issue in the new year.We really do not fear it to the extent mentioned by doom sayers.The Main post will published in December as well.


21 ALERT.
Gold demand has fallen about 20% in the third quater of this year,possibly caused by India banning the import of the metal to preserve their currency.How ever now an increase in imports is taking place in countries bordering on India,leading to the suspicion that illegal trade into India may be increasing.A smaller decrease has taken placee in the Western World ,but a slower increase is taking place  in the East

13 ALERT Australa's punitive super tax on resources led to   the cou being less attractive to investors.It also did not produce the revenues that were expected and stopped development of new mines.It led to the demise of the labour government then.A further carbon tax only further distressed the country.Now in electioneering Abbott has said he will repeal both taxes to restore Australias competitiveness and already the fruits of this policy are beginning to flow through.This should be a lesson to us, here in South Africa. You have been warned!

7 ALERT   Mark Cutifani CEO of Anglo American at a Chamber of Mines conference has pointed out eight out of ten South Africans are some way dependent on mining for income.The fastest way to eliminate poverty is to work hand in hand with major miners on the NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN BY GOVERNMENT.

2 ALERT    GLENCOREXSTRATA will obtain a secondary listing on the main board of the JSE on the 13 November.Their primary listing is on the LSE.They have large interests in copper and coal amongst other metals.This move should  shake things up locally.

NOTE 1 The latest page updates are always at the bottom of the index above.
.
IT MIGHT BE SEEN AS PRESUMPTUOUS FOR ME TO TELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON HOW TO RUN THEIR COUNTRY,BUT I COULD NOT HELP TO NOTICE THAT EVEN IN LAST WEEK  BOTH TURKEY AND A RUSSIAN STATE BOLSTERED THEIR GOLD HOLDINGS.HOW EVER YOU LOOK AT IT CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN SHAKEN.EVEN CHINA WHO HAS HELPED AMERICA WITH VERY LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY WAS WORRIED.
The question is what do countries worldwide do to bolster their  reserve  currencies ?
1.They have not entirely lost faith in the US Dollar,but obviously they feel they should have some alternatives as well,to meet all eventualities.
2.Europe followed a different route during the recession,although they are not out of the woods many countries were impressed by their belt tightening and refusial to print paper notes with out backing.Therefore countries are opting to hold quantities of Euros in their reserves as well.
3.GOLD is seen as a reserve currency,with out borders and is as popular as ever.When Cyprus defaulted the Union wanted to take their whole gold holding as colatteral for a further loan,but was strongly resisted by them.
4.The United States still keeps large reserves of gold in their vaults in Philedelphia and at Fort Knox  as a back up.One could also count their and many other countries "strategic" reserves of oil and other minerals as reserves as well.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CRY THAT THE PRICE IS MANIPULATED DOWNWARDS.How ever all countries are likely to prefer a stable,not volatile price and probably  WILL NOT let the price fall very low as this would damage the worth of their reserves.

EMERGING MARKETS showing Value.

Emerging markets are beginning to show value again for the first time after the long recession thats lasted from 2007.Up to now investors have opted for safety of their industrialised countries.
Rest of this post above, below the ALERTS and Notes.
30,  OCTOBER REVEIW
Well the month that was has passed.The stock markets have reached all time highs in both the USA and here in South Africa.The market always run ahead of actual conditions after recessions.That does not mean the party is over,but the upturn will probably last for a number of years.The shock of the American government closing did not spoil the party,but has made countries world wide nervous and they are starting to look for alternative structures so to avoid a similar threat in future.

ALERT 25/10
BILITON(BIL) is in a  better position to exploit the stabilising steel prices in China and the rest of Asia as they are virtually on their "door step",than any of the other large mining groups as the distance between them and their market is the nearest.That is why they are expanding their mining works in Australia.

ALERT 18/10
There is new interest  OIL FROM SHALE leading to intensive  geological investegations in the KAROO BASIN .This is very exciting news for us as ,this will stabilise our prices eventually.SASOL is at the forefront of these investigations.They will gain good experience from their venture in America where they are busy with extracting oil there from shale rock.

10/10ALERT        BOTSWANA is busy establishing a large DIAMOND cutting and polishing industry.De Beers is aiding them in this project at the behest of their government.True they have the largest  number of unmined diamond diferous kimberlite pipes in the world.The trouble is that they are off the beaten track for buyers who frequent the longer established polishing centres of Antwerp and Tel Aviv. 

4/10 ALERT      Mick Davis is at it again!
The former director of ESKOM and founder and CEO of Xstrata which grew into a gaint resources company that has been taken over by  Glencore has not been at a loose end for long.HE is busy with a new company which has all the makings of a new aquisitive gaint.Called X2 RESOURCES,RUMOUR HAS IT THAT IT HAS ALREADY ATTRACTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND IS ABOUT TO LAUNCH OVERSEAS.

2/10ALERT  A shortage of platinum group metals are starting to occur world wide. This is not reflected in prices yet as producers are afraid to increase prices as demand might weaken on higher prices,but when industries start to increase orders then prices are likely to rapidly increase.

NOTE 4 See on OUR RESOURCES NEWS latest comment by  Barry on LARGE CAP SHARES COMMENT AND SMALL CAP TIPS 23 OCT 
ips
NOTE 3 See  theTOP 40 WATCHLIST latest update above on 9/10/2013

NOTE 2 See MY SPECIALST WATCHLIST update,in the above index Oct 7 for the newest addition to the list.

NOTE 1 The latest update is always at the bottom of the of the index above,also use the labels below posts and in the side-bar to group articles on the same subject.


EMERGING MARKETS HAVE LAGGED THE FIRST WORLD MARKETS for what the traders considered more stable markets.How ever as emerging markets fell further than the first world markets and shares that survived that fall are beginning to flourish.They are attracting funds from those in the know.Still it is better to buy shares on the more stable markets in this category as the JSE of South Africa which has had the market the longest in Africa and other bourses that have been there the longest on other continents and have an impeccable reputations for rules and regulation of the market. 
Metals and minerals are also starting to take off again as shortages are starting to develop as production was severely cut during the recession.The world is recovering slowly,but the pace will eventually start to speed up ,causing prices to rise rapidly.Do remember it takes time to increase production and its not as simple as turning on a tap!

NEW MINING METHODS, INNOVATION A GAME CHANGE.

  For over a centuary starting  in the eighteen eighties South Africa was the largest Gold producer in the world.Since platinum has been taken into general use we are still the largest  producers of this metal.We are amongst the leading produces of a whole raft of metals and minerals currently.How ever now costs and increasing difficulty of extracting these metals and minerals is beginning to weigh on our returns.
See rest of this article beneath Alerts and Notes.

20/9ALERT

DE BEERS which is owned  by Anglo American is doing very well this year.This is now mainly been driven by China which is expected to drive the market for the next five years as Chinese brides now prefer diamonds to gold.All other diamond mines should also benefit from this trend.

   11/9 ALERT  

   The world now seems a safer place ,if the Russian plan  to hand the Syrian weapons to the United Nations goes ahead.Anyway the pedal has been removed from the war stance and markets are recovering again.Chinese trade figures have also turned positive this week.Our local strikes all now seem to be going to be resolved in a more amicable manner with increases below 10%.Workers now understand the gravity of our local situation.Our weaker Rand will lead to an increase in the price received for our local products and minerals.

   3/9 ALERT  
OFFICIAL  STRIKE ACTION has started in earnest this morning at mostly gold related mines.As the mines are on a tight -rope alread running at near losses they can ill afford these actions.There can be no increases in wages with out increases in productivity levels.These levels have been declining for several years now.
Note 4 We have changed the format of the TOP 40 index to reflect more contemporary movements see above.
Note  3  The newest updates are always put at the bottom of the index list above.
Note 2 Use labels below articles  and in the side-bar to group articles on similar subjects.
Note 1.Do read in the side-bar  interestng items and ads., especially chosen to enhance your knowledge.

  Mechanisation was tried about ten years ago by LONMIN in it platinum mines.It was the first company to do so.It turned out to be a complete failure.Our Gold mines are very deep and by conventional methods the gold is nearly worked out.It has been partly political pressure that has kept the mines on a large manual footing,employing hundreds of thousands of workers.
All that is about to change and the realisation by all the parties that things have to change is slowly dawning on all.
  A completely new method of mining GOLD
is coming to the fore.Instead of bringing rock carrying the gold to the surface to crush etc.It has been found that with a new method just the GOLD REEF can be removed with chemical and other methods and the rest of the granite left in place.In the past sections of the mines had to be left in place ,if I remember correctly every 27 yards of a square of 27 yards were left to keep the roof up and in between pillars of wood would be put in place for further reinforcement.NOW A METHOD OF BACK FILL is to be used and all the Gold areas not yet mined can be utilised.
  GRAHAM ,Ceo of Harmony has pointed that as much gold as has been removed from the mines in the last hundred years remains to be removed.Most of it at reasonable shallower levels.
  THE MAIN GAME CHANGER WILL BE ROBOTICS NOT JUST MECHANISATION.THE ADVANTAGE OF THIS WILL BE LESS DANGEROUS WORKING CONDITIONS AVOIDING PRESSURE BURSTS THAT ARE LIFE THREATENING AS THE MINES BECOME DEEPER.ALL THIS WILL OF COURSE TAKE TIME,BUT WILL BE LESS LABOUR INTENSIVE AND ALLOW THE MINES TO SURVIVE,SO ATTRACTING CAPITAL TO EXTEND THE LIFE OF MINES.

RESOURCES THE WORLD NEEDS

Central and Southern Africa have many strategic minerals in abundance and are amongst world leaders in producing these.
South Africa produces over 72% of the Platinum used in the world
and 83% of the Rhodium for Catalytic converters and other industrial uses.
See rest of this article beneath Alerts and Notes
28/8  ALERT
Tensions are rising world-wide this morning as the Syrian crises is likely to spill over into
more bloodshed with the world powers taking sides.In South Africa we have serious trade union wars in a fight about turf escalating now.The more moderate NUM union has also upped its demands to compete with the more radical unions.Most of the demands now are completely unnatainable,which could bring our country to its knees.The mining of minerals is likely to decrease to a trickle and many mines would forced to close permanently.

9/8 ALERT
SOUTH AFRICAS gold and platinum production continues to decline,year on year.Figures are issued by the governments stastistical department.Bad news for labour and balance of payments.Gold the once dominant metal is down YOY on June by 14%.
Platinum Group Metals is down by 18%.Not good news for these labour intensive industries also bad news for our GDP.
Coal is now our number one export ,bringing the most money.Iron ore also brings more than Gold

3/8 ALERT
We are not the only country with a foreign exchange deficit it seems! India also is having problems at the moment.They have banned the import of physical gold to help balance their books.Soon they will only allow the import of gold that will exit in jewellery.As gold pays such a big part in their culture,this move has sent the price of their own gold sky high!
                   -------------------------------------------
NOTE 6 See Naomi's recource updates above in the index
Note 5 See international property update on 8/8/2013 above,"PART A"
Note 4. Whats happening to Naomi?....bnlifestyle10.  blogspot .com
Note 3 . See the NEW resource pages on large caps by Barry in the index above.
Note 2. Use the LABELS in the side-bar and at the bottom of articles to group subjects you might want to research.
Note 1 . Remember the newest updates are at the bottom of the index above.


According to the world bank and South African chamber of Mines last year over half a million people were still employed in the mining industry.We are also the fifth largest producer of gold ,also produce 47%of the worlds chrome used in super alloys,also a large exporter of coal and diamonds.
Our immediate neighbours sharing borders with us name Namibia is a large exporter of Uranium alsoDiamonds,Botswana diamonds and Mozambique coal and one of the few producers outside China of Rare earth minerals. In Central Africa there is the DM Congo that supplies rare earths such as tantalum,cobalt and also diamonds.

IMPORTANT VISITOR

President Obama has visited our shores.This is of great  importance to us as we are the leading most advanced  country on the African continent. He has agreed to push congress to pass an extension to the AGOA agreement which gives forty four countries in Africa almost duty free entry  for a variety of products.He also asked for South Africa to consider an agreement which let USA products into our country duty free. Such a free trade agreement could only be to our advantage in the future.
Rest of article below Alerts and Notes
18/7 ALERT
Great news for us is that the private sector will also help to overcome our electricity shortage by generating and selling direct to ESCOM,our largest
coal mining group ,namely EXXARO will also get in on the act by setting up ,with the help of a French firm a power station on the new Limpopo coal field.This is still in the first phase so power shortages are likely to be with us for at least five years.Coal burning power stations are eco friendly these days ,so are not likely to decrease our carbon credits.

9/7 ALERT
The Gold price is shrinking and some econominsts and traders  think it could plummet to around $300 per ounce.
I myself think this is highly unlikely as Gold forms part of every reserve bank in the world.It is the source of last resort in a crises ,when paper money fails.As an example Cyprus was told to pay over their entire gold holding  over,when they ran into trouble last year by the European Union.
For the sakes of the reserve banks they are likely to buy in gold around $700 per ounce if for now other reason than to preserve their assets. 
At the moment the Indian wedding gold market is dead as they are relying on scrap gold to fund their needs.They and every other buyer are not buying to see how low gold will go  as then they can get in at bargain prices.

NOTE 4 Go to Pawsitively Adorable Pets to see how to train potty train your puppy with out bribery or harsh methods.See Naomi's blog below for the address.

NOTE 3 See Naomi's latest Resource update 17/7/2013

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

Note 2 Remember the latest update is always at the bottom of the index above. 
Note 1 See Naomi's Technical update mentioned above.


He also pledged funds for the supply of electricity for some of the most backward countries in Africa, a  good start.Hopefully other major countries will add to this fund.As we all know,electricity leads to a higher standard of living and will lead to the advancement of the continent .
Finally I heard him say in one of his speeches that corruption must be eliminated as no company would be willing to enter a new mining venture say if they had to employ a relative of a government official! Also our government and others on the continent must keep taxes realisticly lower to encourage trade so all can make a living and make it worthwhile to invest.

CHANGING STRATERGIES

The South African Economy has hit a speed bump. For  about six months our balance of payments have been in deficit A main contributor is that our main trading zone namely Europe is also in recession.There for all the resource products we supply prices have been softer than usual.
See rest of article below notes and alerts
28/6 ALERT
With the price of gold falling ,some investors are confused,about the safe haven aspect of the metal.Well,lets see whats happening now.First of all,many mines are on the ropes and are closing or coming very near to close as they are already working at a loss,due to high wages ,fuel and electricity costs.In the case of an increase in price these mines mostly are unable to take up where they left off as water drainage,unsafe working areas and dwindling gold ores will make it almost impossible to contemplate mining with out a sustained doubling of the gold price.Gold is a last resort source of money in a crises.Every one was relying on China to provide never ending demand for all types of products.This is now proving to be a false asset.Shares to a certain extent are also a store of wealth if chosen in a sector that that can be traded for other goods.As less is being mined it is likely to rise in price due to shortages in due course.

21/6 ALERT
SHALE GAS IS THE THE NEXT BIG THING THAT CAN DRIVE OUR ECONOMY.WE HAVE TRILLIONS OF RANDS WORTH IN THE KAROO REGIONS,WE MUST JUST GET ON WITH IT.MOZANBIQUE AND OTHER AFRICAN REGIONS ARE GOING TO BY PASS US AS WE ARE PLACING TOO MUCH EMPASIS ON RULES AND REGULATIONS AND ON DOWN LINE BENEFICATION! LETS FIRST GET STARTED THEN DECIDE ON LEGISLATION! 

6/6  ALERT PRESIDENT ZUMA has declared zero tolerance against wildcat strikes  as these harm the economy as there are legal means that can be followed if the workeASrs feel they must strike after negotiations have broken down with employees. Further he stated turf wars between different trade unions won't be tolerated again as this has led to loss of life in the past year.

NOTES.
NO 5. Definitely NOT worth a visit is http://bnlifestyle10.blogspot.com    
 so avoid at all costs!

NO4. Naomi has re-set and updated her resource page .See her Tech and Resource blog on 11June above.

No  3 Do read  Part A and Part B of  the real estate round up on the pages index above.

No 2 The newest updates above are always at the bottom of the above index.

N0 1  The two most popular pages above are the Autumn and Spring Share and Derivative Comments .In third place is My specialist Watchlist .In fourth place is the Real Estate pages and fifth place the 
Top 40 watchlist 

Article Continued:

The  USA economy is showing signs of picking up,meanwhile their stock exchange has run ahead of the real economic growth and is reaching all time highs.This state of affairs is also being fed by their reserve bank printing money with out fiscal backing,also known as quantitive easing.Europe is following a more conservative monetary policy so their Euro is weakening against the Dollar.Most of our resources are quoted and sold in USA Dollars.
To add to this mix there is a genuine fear  of third world politics interfering with profits.Our inarticulate top politicans unfortunately do not help matters by making wild statements with out much thought.
The South African Rand has stayed very strong till last week.It has suddenly lost 12% of its value,but shows signs of not going to fall much further and might stage a recovery later in the year.
Our Stocks and Shares all came off this week rather sharply.
Most are now oversold,but knowing how the market reacts its likely to retreat further.Probably it will pick up again from July onwards.Resources and shares with foreign content are now coming into vogue.

MAY UPDATES: COAL'S FUTURE ROLE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

ALERT 16/5/2013
The supply of coal will have a positive effect upon the economies of Southern Africa, during this centuary and well into the next one.
Luckily we are well endowned with reserves in Southern Africa.
The new methods of working with coal gives a cleaner burn and the new lower use of water will keep this as the primary source well into the next centuary as coal burn power stations are more economical to build than nuclear power stations.
Our present  coal power stations are mostly  in the Mpumalanga province and are built on the coal fields.This coal is now likely to run out in about fifteen years time.Luckily we have vast reserves of all grades of COAL  in the LIMPOPO Province in the Waterberg range of moutains that are both in this province and the neighbouring country of BOTSWANA.
Since coal is supplied to Escom at a lower price it will be necessary to export at least one third of the better coal to pay for the costs of developing this coal field.
The government understands the value of this vast project.There for they are backing the building of new rail links to export and supply existing power stations.
This rail link is likely to extend into Botswana and to the nearest export port which is developed for coalexports,namely Richard's Bay.
These coal fields give themselves to mechanical means of extraction and therefore not require vast amounts of labour.Surely  EXX will probably gain the most traction from this venture?


ALERT 8/5/2013

PLATINUM GROUP AND GOLD MINERS have become "leaner and meaner" as time has gone on and have cut off all the wastefull methods they used in the past.The good news is they will survive.The prices of metals is likely to rise during wage negotiations in South Africa ,but later in this year fall back again.How ever the absence of new mines owing to the high costs and the falling of production in both the United States and South Africa will add to the demand side not meeting their targets.The price is then likely to increase  steadily from late next year onwards


NOTES
1. SEE NAOMI'S RESOURCE UPDATE ON 6,8 MAY.SHE THINKS SMALLER PLATINUM MINES ARE SHOWING THE FIRST GLIMMER OF RECOVERY.

The Stripping of South African Resource Assets Part 2

Unfortunatly remarks by members of our  government  from time to time harm our image.Things are not that bad on the ground,but those utterings take center stage in the overseas news media which unsettles investors.
See rest of article below Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 17/4/2013
Investors and some traders have been surprised by the fact that GOLD and PLATINUM prices dropped when China and other countries failed to meet their targets and their currencies  declined.After all these resources were supposed to be the final currency which should protect them from such events!
Well all reserve banks world-wide still carry GOLD as a reserve currency so it certainly has value as a basis for paper currencies.
In the past gold went up when paper printed currencies went down,but not of late.Now gold increases as the stock market of a country increases in value.The price increases for all the wrong reasons.So speculators had driven the price up.
The physical demand accounts for about a third of newly mined gold ,reserve banks absorb another third and finally hoarders and speculators hold the rest.The price is unlikely to fall below $900 per ounce as this would have a devistating effect upon governments capital held.
 . 
ALERT 12/1/2013
COMMeERZ BANK noted at the beginning of this month that "Monetary turmoil is not easing notably,but accelerating worldwide.The only true value  currency out there is gold"
A startling statement to make for a rather conservative institution!I see that some other commentators include precious metals of the platinum group as well.Rhodium and Platinum both  could be included as there is not enough gold to satisfy the demand of central banks worldwide.Many institutions feel these metals should back quantitive easing money as such easing can not carry on indefinitely as it devalues currency and  leads to quickening of the inflation cycle.
ALERT 1/4/2013
There is a growing surplus of steel and coal starting to develop world wide,caused by industry "jumping the gun" and winding up production before there is a genuine demand for their products.The recession is easing and in time the world will recover,but the recovery is likely to be very slow this year.

Note 1.The latest update can be found at  
the bottom of the index list above.
Note 2.Use the labels in the side-bar or at the bottom of articles to group subjects which makes research easier
Note 3.Thank goodness Naomi is back! See her technical analysis for derivatives above.

The minister of mining Shabangu was unsettled by the choice of  the new CEO of Anglo American(Mark Cutifani replacing Cynthia Carol with out informing or consulting her beforehand.Actually its none of her business!),the international company with its main listing in the UK and remarked that it must be remembered that it was a South African company that had its main listing on the JSE before 1994, migrating to the FTSE there after.She conveinently forgets this company ( the fourth largest in the world) received about 90% of its development capital from overseas.They helped open up  South Africa to be the resources gaint it is today,to say nothing of the taxes it pays and the knock on effect of many industries that serve the mining and other sectors. The Kumba storey where they gave their mining concession to a rival which had members of families of the government ministers comes to mind .Thank goodnes for our law courts which are untainted by scandal.They reversed this decision.Anglo American (AGL)  has behaved impeccably as they have given a fair portion of their development capital to Southern Africa.
The trade unions are letting us down by repeated wild-cat strikes,which our weak  government almost condones.This plus the recession almost brought Angloplat to its knees.Now AGL has to find the funds to re-finance the company again.
Do read the stripping of our assets part 1.
See the side-bar for POPULAR POSTS

Major resources present OPPORTUNITY !

The sell-off of South African

 mineral resources has been

over done. One finds it is

usually the overseas mutual

funds that are the most

skittish. (See the rest of the article below the Alerts and notes)
ALERT.26/3/2013
Utah in the United States passed a law a couple of years ago to make trading in SILVER and GOLD COINS LEGAL TENDER. Now Arizona is considering similar legislation.This all very revelent in the light of the Cyprus government seizing bank deposits of its citizens.
Now in Utah the holdings of silver and gold which private citizens use as currency has doubled.There is no tax upon currencies .This can have  a stabilising effect upon Gold and silver.The coins are valued at their intrinsic value which varies daily.Many are kept in depositries or as we keep our coins at home.Then a coin card can be swiped.


ALERT.20/3/2013
We hope tht government does not fall into the trap the rest of Africa has in believing the mines are making a killing when they have an extra big pay out of dividends to their share holders as this is an event that happens rarely these days.They forget that a mining company can go years with out paying a dividend and such an event compensates the long suffering shareholders for their patience.They should stop talking about "windfall taxes" !
ALERT. 13/3/2013
1.The poor performance of the Rand is now caused by our foreign exchange deficit.The immediate way to improve the deficit is to attract more investment capital to South Africa,a difficult task as there are government politicians that discourage investment by their utterings at every turn.Also the tax regime on foreign investment should be made less onerous.A great many countries are vieing for these funds by giving all kinds of incentives.
2.The wild cat strikes at EXXARO over production bonuses is regrettable.This can lead to coal shortages and electriccal shortages this winter.
DAY 13  PM
THE STRIKERS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO WORK.UNFORTUNATELY WILD CAT STRIKES SEEM TO BECOMING THE NORM ON ALL KINDS OF MINES FOR FRIVILOUS REASONS.THIS MUST BE BROUGHT  UNDER CONTROL

ALERT. 7/3/2013
SHARES ON THE DOW HAVE REACHED THEIR HIGHEST POINT EVER.IF ONE REALISES THAT THE LAST TIME THAT THEY REACHED THAT POINT WAS FIVE YEARS AGO THEN REALLY THEY STILL HAVE A WAY TO GO THEY REALLY BECOME OVERBOUGHT.

THE PE RATIO NOW AVERAGES AROUND 14.  AT THE HEIGHT OFTHE DOTCOM BUBBLE IT WAS AROUND AN AVERAGE OF 19.

THAT SAID,IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT ITS THE FED  PUMPING MORE MONEY INTO THEIR ECONOMY(US $) THATS LETTING THEIR SHARE PRICES RISE AS ITS THE ONLY PLACE THEY CAN GET A DECENT RETURN ON THEIR CAPITAL.THEIR ECONOMY IS STILL SLUGGISH.

NOTE 1.The latest updates are  at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 2.Visit  the NEW page six of Small/Mid cap shares on index above for the latest share movements.
NOTE 3.In the absence of Naomi I am updating Technical analysis this month-Barry see above.
NOTE 4. The Platinum report has been replaced by THE GOLD AND PLATINUM REVEIW .   See the First new report above.
The major resource holding companies and mining groups continue to hold and increase their holdings when appropiate as now bargains abound.Since 1894 when Gold was first discovered in South Africa the mining of all kinds of resources has been fairly turbulent.How ever those that stayed invested were justly greatly rewarded.Of course our government does not always act in the best interests of mining and should be critisised for their actions,but it is worth mentioning that it is not government policy to nationalise the mines and this stance is unlikely to change.As with most of the world at the moment there is a great deal of discontent with a high unimployment rate.As the world recovers there will be more opportunity for jobs in industry and mining and then tensions are likely to ease.

Miners Dilemma !

PRECIOUS METAL MINERS have had to deal with unexpected circumstances of late in our country,South Africa and the rest of the world. See article below Notes and Alerts .
ALERT Day 20
SIBANYE mine has closed a shaft at the Beatrice Mine after a fire broke out there.The falling gold price has not helped matters .Now seperate from GFI it is mineral rich and consists of the older parts of the then GOLDFIELDS CONGLOMERATE.Sure its gold is expected to run out around 2030,but in the meantime it will produce good dividends.
ALERT Day 8.
25%OF SOUTH AFRICAS working population is either directly or indirectly dependent on mining,states Anglo American for their income.

NOTE 1.The newest update of the pages above is at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 2.See above Naomi has updated her analysis


Both Platinum and Gold mines should be making a great recovery now as the share prices of other types of mines and industries recover as the world emerges from the long recession,but they are not.
The question should be asked why?
Well Gold has not as many industrial uses and is more a store of wealth to be held in times when the ecomonies are suffering.
Platinum group metals on the other hand are both in demand as precious metals and have a myriad of industrial uses.
So why is the Platinum price not increasing at a greater pace than it did after the last recession in the ninety nineties?In fact it is struggling to increase at a pace greater than the gold price.The platinum price is now around $1700 as is gold.The price after the last recession reached $2200 per ounce!
The answer is that then there was absolutely no platinum recovery process  in place.Now there is a recovery industry which collects scrap platinum metal from spent catylitic converters. The recovery rate is above 90%.This can then be sold to the users at a price well below the newly mined platinum price.
Palladium and rhodium can also be recovered but as they are not such a threat as the scap platinum recovery is to newly mined platinum.
Rising costs and inflation has rendered about half the platinum group mines unprofitable.Many of the gold producers are suffering a similar fate. See the latest update in the index above on 12 feb 2013.

The new year awakens !

Obviously we are going to try to avoid last years mistakes and do the right things to be very successful ,but just remember;
"The greatest mistake you can make in life ,is to be continually afraid that you are going to make one"  ELBERT HUBBARD.

ALERT 24 JAN TWO REASONABLY PRICED RAND HEDGES NOW WITH STRONG FLOWS OF INCOME. REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL(RIN),TRENCOR(TRE)

ALERT 10 JAN
RESOURCE SHARES ARE ON THE MOVE.THE PLATINUM PRICE IS QUITE RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE GOLD PRICE.CHINA IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO WORLD RECOVERY AND AMERICA IS SLOWLY RECOVERING.THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND OTHER MINERALS FUELED BY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS RAMPING UP. IN DEMAND NOW IS PLATINUM AND COAL

1.The latest updates are mentioned at the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE

See Barry's latest comment on commercial real estate on part A real estate page on
the following blogspot
             and     also see Naomi's update of small resource shares  AND her first comment on technical  analysis Jan16

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

DECEMBER The "FISCAL CLIFF"

FINAL ALERT 28/12/2012
The canny American Politicians realise that the Americans will have to fork out more money in taxes if America is to keep its super power status and other steps have to be taken to balance the budget, as well as keeping positive programs in their society.Never a popular move for any demoncratically elected government to take.Certain political suicide for any party associated with increases.So they are likely to let some of the fiscal cliff  go through.Then they can propose softening the most contentious parts and that will be well received by all.They might just increase the debt ceiling now.
The wildcat strikes have taken their toll on especially Gold and Platinum mines .With out further structurng the majority are in or will run into a monetary deficit soon.
(See article below other info.)
The final updates for 2012 small cap shares are below the 2013 list  on the web-site below and on recovery shares below the recovery watchlist for 2012
GO TO SOME REALLY GREAT SMALL CAP GAINS ON THE ALTEX ON PAGE 4
GO TO http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NEW ALERT 5/12.
On the VIX INDEX the lows are creeping upwards since the 12 Sept.The highs show no pattern in particular yet,but we can expect an upward move as the FISCAL CLIFF nears in January.As most of our resources are counted in Dollar terms,it is likely to have a devistating effect upon our share prices over the short term if no agreement is reached.

Info item no1(scroll down to find)

MOST POPULAR POSTS 
 IN MARCH 2012
  1. THE STRIPPING OF SOUTH AFRICAN ASSETS
 2.  APRIL 2012 ECONOMICS AND GOLD
 3. SEPTEMBER 2012 MARIKANA BOILS OVER
 4. OCTOBER 2012  A POLITCAL PLAY
 5. NOVEMBER 2012 A SLOW RETURN TO NORMALITY

INFO ITEM NO2
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATE ABOVE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE.THIS IS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO FIND.THEN THERE'S NO REASON  TO PAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE INDEX FROM THE TOP EACH TIME.
INFO ITEM NO 3
ON THIS POST'S PAGES IN THE COMING MONTHS THE SMALL CAPS WLL BE MOVED TO THEIR OWN WEB PAGE.
THE LINK WLL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE ABOVE
also SEE THE BUSNESS WEEK POST ON THIS NEW HOME:-

http://popgames12.blogspot.com


ARTICLE:-
THE MOST DISTURBING THING THE STRIKES WAS THE INSTRANGIGENCE AND VIOLENCE THAT WENT WITH THE ACTION.IT HAS LEFT AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING THAT WE ARE NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE!
THE MINES COULD NOT EVER COME NEAR WHAT WAS ASKED,HOW EVER THEY LOST SO MUCH IN PRODUCTION,THAT THEIR FUTURE IS NOT ASSURED.
THE MINE BOSSES HAVE VERY VALIANTLY COME FORWARD WITH PLANS TO SAVE THE DAY.
THE FIRST ONE WAS   THE PLATINUM MINER AMPLATS WHO HAVE INFORMED US THAT THEY ARE DOING A COMPLETE REVEIW OF THEIR OPERATIONS AND WILL INFORM THE MARKET IN THE NEW YEAR OF THEIR DECISIONS.
GOLD FIELDS ARE SEPERATING SOME OF THEIR ASSETS FROM THE REST OF THEIR HOLDINGS . LONMIN IS RAISING A RIGHTS ISSUE.
THE REST WILL PROBABLY TAKE ACTION SOON.
 

NOVEMBER A slow return to normality ?

The after effects of the labour disruptions,are being felt by every one in our country,but we are ever hopeful that the worst is behind us and in time the economy will recover fast enough to give us all a sustainable better life ! (See article below)
SEE NAOMI'S RESOURCE UPDATE ABOVE
NAOMI SAYS SHE HAS NEVER SEEN THE MARKET SO OVER SOLD GO TO HER TECH ANALYSIS ABOVE FOR MORE INFO 19/11/2012

USE LABELS UNDER POSTS TO CLUSTER LIKE SUBJECTS TOGETHER.ALSO SEE LABELS IN THE SIDE-BAR .
IF YOU WISH TO FOLLOW BY  E-MAIL SEE BUTTON NEAR BOTTOM OF SIDE-BAR

The Gold mines are using collective bargaining which seems to be working for them,how ever the Platinum and Chrome mines in mostly North West ,Mupumalanga and Limpopo provinces are working towards this model,but are finding the going sticky.
I for one cannot see how this is going to work as there so many different types of mining procedure and richer on poorer ore bodies,opencast and tunnels etc.
The workers in these provinces as well as those coming from the Eastern Cape are highly politicised and seem to have a political agenda as well.There is a rumour that some of their basic needs are been seen to ,by elements unknown. The National Union of Mineworkers which is reconised held a meeting this week which was well attended,when  rival organisions turned up armed to teeth half way through their meeting and tried to disrupt it.The police had their hands full keeping the two groups apart!
The platinum mines are now looking for various ways to save money as they are mostly working at a loss and raise money to carry on.
THE WORD MECHANISATION IS BEING BANDIED ABOUT.Let us not forget that about ten years ago Lonmin went ahead with such a scheme.At the time the other majors did not.Well it was an absolute flop as they lost out and made much less money at a time that platinum was thriving than their rivals .Some ore bodies of the platinum group are more than a thousand meters below ground!


1